Abbreviated report triggered: YTD +82.7%, price EUR 95.90 is 3.7% from 52w high (EUR 99.55)
Data: yfinance, as of 2026-05-28. Shares outstanding: 30M. Currency: EUR.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current price | EUR 95.90 |
| 52-week high | EUR 99.55 |
| 52-week low | EUR 31.70 |
| Distance from 52w high | -3.7% |
| YTD return (since Jan 2, 2026 @ EUR 51.00) | +82.7% |
| Market cap | EUR 2.88B |
| Book value per share | EUR 61.47 |
| P/B | 1.56x |
Threshold check: YTD >80% AND within 10% of 52w high — BOTH conditions met. Cycle inflection already priced. Abbreviated report applies.
Siltronic's thesis was compelling at EUR 31–51 (trough). A stock that almost trebles from its low in under a year is no longer at the trough — the market has already done the mean-reversion work. The question now is whether the fundamentals justify EUR 95.90. They do not:
The +82.7% YTD move is not driven by a fundamental inflection. Q1 2026 earnings (Apr 30) showed deeper losses than expected. The rally is likely driven by a semiconductor sector re-rating (AI capex narrative, TSMC/GlobalWafers cycle optimism) combined with short covering from the EUR 31 trough. This is momentum, not Graham value.
F6 — EPS growth of at least 1/3 over a 10-year period: FAIL
EPS trajectory: EUR 13.02 (2022) → EUR 6.15 (2023) → EUR 2.10 (2024) → EUR -2.31 (2025). The company swung from peak earnings to a net loss in three years. No 10-year growth case is possible when the most recent full year is a loss. Trailing 12-month EPS is approximately -EUR 4.31 including the deteriorating Q1 2026.
F7 — Moderate P/E and P/B: FAIL on both
Additional Graham filters for context (all FAIL or marginal):
| Filter | Criterion | Result |
|---|---|---|
| F1 Sales size | >EUR 1.5B | FAIL — EUR 1.35B (2025) |
| F2 Current ratio | ≥2.0x | PASS (barely — 2.01x) |
| F3 Debt coverage | Net debt <2x NCA | FAIL — 2.0x (borderline) |
| F4 Earnings continuity | No loss years in 10yr | FAIL — 2025 loss |
| F5 Dividend continuity | ≥20 years uninterrupted | FAIL — IPO 2017, cuts every year |
| F6 EPS growth | ≥1/3 over 10yr | FAIL — peak-to-loss collapse |
| F7 P/E ≤15x, P/B ≤1.5x | Both required | FAIL — no pos. EPS; P/B 1.56x |
Graham score: 1/7 (F2 barely passes)
Per shr-017, a high trailing screen score can be a cyclical trap when guidance is worsening. WAF.DE is the mirror image: a low screen score during a cycle trough that has already been priced in. The setup that made the trade interesting (EUR 31–51, P/B ~0.5–0.8x, sentiment at maximum pessimism) is now gone. At EUR 95.90:
The stock has re-rated on hope, not on reported fundamentals. This is the time to be cautious, not to buy.
Graham IV formula V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g) requires positive EPS. With trailing EPS -EUR 4.31 and forward EPS -EUR 4.22, the formula produces negative values at all growth rates — undefined/inapplicable. This is not a technicality; it reflects that the business has no current earnings base to value. A P/B-based floor of EUR 61.47 (1.0x book) is the most defensible anchor, but even that requires confidence that book value is not being eroded further by ongoing losses and capital-intensive CapEx.
Book value erosion check: equity declined from EUR 2,009.9M (2024) to EUR 1,844.0M (2025), a EUR -166M shrinkage from the net loss. If 2026 is another loss year (consensus: yes), book value per share will fall further below EUR 61.47 before any recovery.
VERDICT: RED
The original thesis (EU wafer maker at cycle trough, near book, maximum pessimism) was correct in identifying the opportunity class, but the window has closed. The stock is up 82.7% YTD and trades 29.6% above the analyst consensus price target of EUR 74.00, with no positive earnings inflection visible in the numbers. Q1 2026 was a miss and showed accelerating gross margin deterioration. Graham filters score 1/7. There is no margin of safety at EUR 95.90.
This is a momentum/sentiment trade now, not a value trade.
Re-engagement conditions (all required simultaneously):
Watchlist add price: EUR 62.00 (P/B 1.01x; near book value; gives ~15% discount to analyst mean PT of EUR 74.00; meaningful margin of safety entry for a capital-intensive cyclical that is currently losing money)
If reached, re-run full screen before executing — do not auto-trigger a buy. The kill condition for any future thesis is a second annual loss year with no gross margin recovery by Q2 of that year.
VERDICT LINE: RED — cycle already priced (EUR 95.90, +83% YTD, 3.7% from 52w high, 30% above analyst consensus PT EUR 74); fundamentals still deteriorating (Q1 2026 gross profit negative, EPS miss); 1/7 Graham filters; watchlist at EUR 62 (P/B ~1.0x) only if gross margin recovers.