Verify date: 2026-05-28 | Price: $86.56 | Market cap: ~$4.82B
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current price | $86.56 |
| 52w High | $88.17 |
| 52w Low | $30.86 |
| Distance from 52w High | -1.8% |
| YTD Return (2026) | +133.1% |
| YTD start price | $37.13 |
ABBREVIATED REPORT TRIGGERED: YTD >80% (133%) AND within 10% of 52w high (1.8% away). The thesis question — "has it rerated or is auto/industrial keeping it depressed?" — is answered definitively: it has fully rerated. The opportunity window this thesis was predicated on has closed.
The remaining sections document the quantitative picture so it can be revisited if POWI pulls back materially.
Fabless semiconductor company designing high-efficiency power conversion ICs. Core products: EcoSmart, InnoSwitch, BridgeSwitch, MinE-CAP families. Revenue mix: consumer (~55%), industrial (~25%), automotive (~10%), communications (~10%). Designs integrate the IC and high-voltage power transistor on one die — differentiator vs. discrete solutions. No manufacturing (fabless); uses external foundries. Dividend payer since 2010+.
Stock bottomed in late 2024 / early 2025 near $30 as the auto/industrial channel correction was at its deepest. The +133% YTD move reflects the market pricing a full cycle recovery and earnings mean-reversion to 2021-2022 levels. At $86.56, POWI now trades above the highest analyst price target ($85, Susquehanna post-raise May 25).
| Year | Revenue | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $651.1M | Peak |
| 2023 | $444.5M | -31.8% |
| 2024 | $419.0M | -5.7% |
| 2025 | $443.5M | +5.8% |
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q1-2025 | $105.5M | — |
| Q2-2025 | $115.9M | — |
| Q3-2025 | $118.9M | — |
| Q4-2025 | $103.2M | — |
| Q1-2026 | $108.3M | +2.6% |
Recovery is real but tepid. Q1-2026 revenue is still 34% below the 2022 quarterly rate (~$163M/qtr). The market has priced a full recovery; actual recovery is ~30% complete by revenue.
| Year | EPS | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $2.93 | Peak |
| 2023 | $0.97 | -67% |
| 2024 | $0.56 | -42% |
| 2025 | $0.39 | -30% |
| TTM (Q2'25–Q1'26) | $0.30 | Trough |
| Forward consensus | $1.83 | +511% recovery implied |
FY2025: SBC = $39.7M vs Net Income = $22.1M — SBC is 180% of reported earnings.
| Metric | Reported | SBC-Adjusted |
|---|---|---|
| FY2025 Net Income | $22.1M | -$17.6M |
| FY2025 EPS | $0.39 | -$0.32 (negative) |
| TTM Net Income | $16.6M | -$20.7M |
| TTM EPS | $0.30 | -$0.37 (negative) |
| FY2025 FCF | $87.1M | $47.4M |
| P/FCF | 55.4x | 101.9x |
POWI is economically loss-making on a shareholder-dilution-adjusted basis at trough. SBC as a % of revenue (~9%) is elevated for a mature analog chip company.
| Metric | Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Trailing P/E | 288.5x | Meaningless at trough |
| Forward P/E | 47.3x | Priced for full recovery |
| 3yr-avg EPS P/E | 135.2x | ($0.64 avg) |
| P/B | 7.1x | Premium quality multiple |
| P/S | 10.8x | Expensive for analog semi |
| EV/EBITDA | 91.8x | |
| Dividend yield | 0.99% | Low at current price |
| Net cash | $257M | 5.3% of market cap |
| Filter | Threshold | POWI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| F1: Adequate size | Revenue >$500M | $443.5M | FAIL (borderline) |
| F2: Financial condition | CR >2x, LTD < NCA | CR 6.88x, zero LTD | PASS |
| F3: Earnings stability | Positive EPS 10yr | $0.39/$0.56/$0.97/$2.93 — no losses | PASS |
| F4: Dividend record | Uninterrupted | Continuous since 2010+, growing | PASS |
| F5: Earnings growth | >1/3 over 10yr | EPS declining from 2022 peak | FAIL (cyclical trough — shr-017 applies) |
| F6: Moderate P/E | <15x trailing, <20x 3yr-avg | 288x trailing, 135x 3yr-avg, 47x fwd | FAIL |
| F7: Moderate P/B | <1.5x, or P/E×P/B <22.5 | 7.1x P/B; forward P/E×P/B = 336x | FAIL |
Score: 2-3/7
F5 note (shr-017 cyclicality vs. structural): The earnings decline is cyclical — auto/industrial channel destocking that hit all analog/power semis (TI, Monolithic Power, ON Semi, etc.). POWI was not losing share; it was losing cycle. This distinguishes it from a structural decline. However, the market has now priced the recovery, so the cyclical trough argument that could justify a high Graham score on trailing data is moot — the stock is no longer cheap.
Graham formula: V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g). Current price $86.56.
| Growth g | IV | Margin of Safety vs $86.56 |
|---|---|---|
| 0% | $3.31 | -96% |
| 3% | $5.66 | -93% |
| 5% | $7.21 | -92% |
| 7.5% | $9.17 | -89% |
| 10% | $11.12 | -87% |
Break-even growth (trailing): 106.7%/yr — absurd, confirms trailing EPS is irrelevant.
| Growth g | IV | Margin of Safety vs $86.56 |
|---|---|---|
| 0% | $15.55 | -82% |
| 3% | $26.54 | -69% |
| 5% | $33.86 | -61% |
| 7.5% | $43.01 | -50% |
| 10% | $52.16 | -40% |
Break-even growth (forward): 19.4%/yr — meaning the market demands POWI compound EPS at ~19% annually from recovery earnings just to justify today's price. For comparison, POWI's FY2022 peak EPS was $2.93; forward consensus is $1.83. Even at peak earnings ($2.93), IV at 10% growth = $2.93 × (8.5 + 20) = $83.51 — barely at current price.
Per shr-003: the gap between trailing break-even (107%) and forward break-even (19%) reveals the market is pricing a complete profitability inflection from $0.39 to $1.83 in one year. The question is whether $1.83 is achievable and sustainable.
| Category | Signal | Color |
|---|---|---|
| Price action | +133% YTD, -1.8% from 52w high | RED |
| vs. analyst consensus | Price ABOVE highest analyst PT ($85) | RED |
| Insider activity (CEO) | Lloyd sold 3,322 shares Feb 9 at $46 | RED |
| Insider activity (Directors) | Balu sold $3.81M at $70 (May 21); Brathwaite sold $499K May 13 | RED |
| Insider activity (Officers) | Jain, Gupta multiple sells — NO purchases | RED |
| SBC burden | 180% of net income; SBC-adj EPS negative | RED |
| Earnings trend | Beat-and-raise last 2 qtrs | GREEN |
| Revenue recovery | +2.6% YoY; still 32% below 2022 peak | AMBER |
| Balance sheet | Zero debt, $257M net cash | GREEN |
| Dividend | Growing, covered by FCF | GREEN |
| Forward guidance | Consensus $1.83 fwd EPS vs $0.39 trailing | AMBER (priced in) |
shr-002 insider pattern: CEO + 2 Directors + 2 Officers all selling in the past 3 months. Total insider sales ~$4.6M in period. Zero open-market purchases. Per shr-002, systematic C-suite selling is a far stronger bearish signal than any single insider — this is now a multi-person, multi-level pattern. All sales occurred as price was rising ($46 → $70 range), not distress selling — these are insiders taking profits into the rally.
Original thesis question: Has POWI rerated with the broader semi rally, or is auto/industrial cycle keeping it depressed?
Answer: It has fully rerated. The +133% YTD move is the rerating. Evidence:
What the bull case requires: That $1.83 forward EPS is the floor, not the ceiling; that POWI re-compounds from there at 15-20%/yr; and that the market re-rates it on a quality-growth basis rather than a cyclical recovery basis. That is a plausible story for a 2-3 year hold, but at 47x forward earnings, you are not being paid for waiting.
The fabless quality argument is real — zero debt, consistent dividends, superior gross margins (~54%), proprietary EcoSmart IP, long design cycle creates customer stickiness. But quality at any price is not a Graham approach. The VWCE core already provides some POWI exposure.
VERDICT: RED — Do Not Buy. Fully rerated. No margin of safety at any reasonable EPS scenario.
Key strike-outs:
Re-evaluation trigger: Price returning to $45-55 range (representing forward P/E ~25-30x on $1.83 and meaningful margin of safety on normalized peak EPS). At $50, forward P/E = 27x, Graham IV at 10% growth on forward EPS = $52, suggesting the break-even is near and any further recovery creates upside. That would be worth re-running this screen.
Portfolio fit: None at current price. VWCE core provides passive exposure to the eventual recovery. If POWI pulls back 35-40% to the $50-55 zone on a macro reset or delayed auto recovery, re-screen with this document as the base.
VERDICT LINE: RED — Fully rerated at $86.56; +133% YTD; price above all analyst PTs; SBC-adjusted EPS negative; Graham IV at 10% fwd growth = $52 (40% below); systematic insider selling; no margin of safety at any reasonable scenario. Re-screen if price revisits $45-55.