GANX (Gain Therapeutics) — Execution Log #

Position Summary #

Tranche Plan #

T2 Decision (2026-03-20) #

• SKIPPED. AD/PD catalyst (Mar 18) produced 3rd consecutive sell-the-news event (-26%). MDS-UPDRS did NOT worsen (no fundamental stop triggered), but the sell-the-news pattern (shr-029) means adding capital here has worse EV than deploying elsewhere (shr-028).
• EUR 138.56 remains as cash for next opportunity (IDN-type fundamental catalyst or next biotech with FDA binary event).

Revised Strategy (per shr-030) #

• Hold 65 shares as existing position. No additional capital deployed.
• On next catalyst pop (FDA IND clearance, ROTH conference momentum, or BIAL read-through): sell 30-35 shares to recover ~EUR 65-75 of capital.
• Hold remaining 30-35 shares as free-carried stub for Phase 2 optionality. Mirrors SLS playbook.
• If no pop materializes and fundamental stop triggers → exit all.

Pre-Buy Red Flag Check #

GREEN (thesis intact) #

• Clinical data: Phase 1b CSF GluSph reduction (81% in elevated subgroup) is real and published
• Mechanism differentiation: Allosteric GCase activation vs Sanofi's failed substrate reduction — fundamentally different approach
• Analyst consensus: 5/5 Buy, mean PT $7.60 (213% upside)
• Institutional accumulation: Marshall Wace +849%, Susquehanna +751% in Q4 2025
• Insider buying history: Founder + CEO bought open-market at $1.00-1.01 (Aug 2024)
• Near-term catalyst: AD/PD oral presentation Mar 18 with extension data (new, unpublished)
• Patent protection: Through 2038 (composition of matter)
• Second compound: Poster at AD/PD discloses a next-gen GCase modulator (pipeline depth)

AMBER (watch closely) #

• Cash position: ~$5.8M estimated Q4 2025, burn ~$4.8M/quarter — runway depends entirely on ATM
• Dilution: 48% share growth in 18 months via ATM; ~20%/yr ongoing dilution at current price
• ATM capacity: ~$21M remaining on $100M shelf — structural ceiling per shr-025
• Open-label design: No placebo arm in Phase 1b — MDS-UPDRS improvement could be placebo effect
• Small sample: n=6 for key efficacy signal — not statistically robust
• No insider buying since Phase 1b data (Dec 2025): absence of insider conviction at current levels
• FDA IND pending: Response to preclinical data request submitted Mar 2026, awaiting reply
• 10-K not yet filed: Going concern language possible

RED (would kill thesis) #

• None triggered as of 2026-03-15

Same-Day Red Flag Check (2026-03-16, pre-buy) #

New competitive item: Vanqua Bio (VQ-101, pharmacological chaperone) presents at AD/PD Friday Mar 20 at 5:20pm CET. Different mechanism from GT-02287 but same indication (GBA-PD). Monitor for read-across.

Exit Plan (REVISED 2026-03-20 — post AD/PD disappointment) #

Phase 1: Capital Recovery (sell half on next pop — shr-030) #

Phase 2: Free-Carried Stub (hold remainder for long-tail optionality) #

Fundamental Stops (NOT price stops — per shr-024) #

Monitoring Calendar (updated 2026-03-20) #

Watchlist Alerts (REVISED 2026-03-20) #

Biotech Mini-Portfolio Context (shr-009) #

2 of 4-6 minimum uncorrelated bets. Different indication, mechanism, regulatory timeline. Portfolio Sharpe improves by ~40% vs single bet (sqrt(2)).

Trade Log #

T2 budget (EUR 138.56) retained as cash — deploy into next shr-028 qualifying opportunity.