| Rank | Ticker | Composite | Verdict | Entry Trigger | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PAH3.DE | 60.7 | HOLD → wait May 12 | H1 results: VW equity contribution >EUR 2B AND Porsche AG margin >8% | Trading at stress-case floor (~EUR 30); 30% NAV discount; forward P/E 2x. China/EV/tariffs all RED. |
| 2 | MOS | 56.4 | PASS | None — wait for $19-20 + cycle confirmation | Negative FCF, sulfur cost shock, Belarus sanctions easing bearish, zero insider buying. shr-017 cyclical trap. |
| 3 | UHR.SW | 56.4 | HOLD → wait | CHF 135-150 entry zone | Trades 12% ABOVE analyst mean. Value trap risk. Gross margin compressing 80%→77%. Earnings July 9. |
| 4 | BKG.L | 56.4 | HOLD with optionality T1 | June 24 results, OR aggressive insider follow-through | Chairman Perrins bought £1M+ in April at 3,800-4,400p, current 3,242p. P/B 0.86x, net cash, Lynch cyclical-with-turnaround. T1 EUR 150 possible NOW on insider strength. |
| 5 | BOL.PA | 55.0 | PASS | Post-dividend (Jun 25) at EUR 3.00-3.30 only IF Ackman UMG deal still live | Trades at PREMIUM to current NAV, not discount. Stated 0.62x P/B is book illusion. |
| 6 | AKE.PA | 55.0 | HOLD → wait May 6 | EUR 50-55 entry zone after Q1 confirms trough | PFAS escalation (Jan 2026 France case new), 4 consecutive earnings misses. |
| 7 | SHEL.L | 55.0 | HOLD → wait May 7 | 2,700-2,900p, Brent stabilization, new $3B+ buyback | shr-031 sector insider sell ratio 237:1. Pearl GTL Qatar damage = 12-mo headwind. Mid-cycle, not trough. |
Recommendation: do NOT deploy any T1 capital in the next 7 days. Four binary earnings events are pending. Wait for May 12 to refresh PAH3 read; Reddit Phase 3 may surface contrarian conviction overlays.
None as a clean GO. Closest to GO: BKG.L on insider strength, but FY26 results June 24 is the better entry point with full margin of safety. T1 EUR 150 possible now is a judgment call.
output/pipeline/screens/composite-2026-05-05.json (322 candidates, reused from Apr 20)