RILY 10-K + Earnings Check — 2026-03-31

Key Findings

10-K: NOT FILED as of Mar 30. NT 10-K filed Mar 17 (new auditor BDO onboarded Sep 2025). Extended deadline: today Mar 31. Earnings call: 4:30 PM ET today. If not filed, Nasdaq Mandatory Panel Monitor (imposed Jan 27) allows immediate Delist Determination — no cure period.

Legal: No new charges. SEC/DOJ investigations remain OPEN. Kahn sentencing Apr 2 (2 days). BRC filed $735M lawsuit against Kahn + Willkie Farr (Jan 20) — positioning as victim, not co-conspirator. Bryant Riley NOT charged. Schedule 13D/A filed Mar 19: Riley holds 20.1%, terminated share pledge.

FY2025 prelim: Rev $960-972M, NI $275-280M (vs -$772M in FY24), EPS $8.98-9.16. BUT Operating Adj. EBITDA only ~$111M — rest is one-time asset sale gains. P/E ~0.8x on headline EPS is misleading; ~2.3x on recurring EBITDA.

Debt: Net debt $609-631M at Dec 2025 (from $1.39B peak). Mar 2026: redeemed $96M RILYK + retired $37.9M via bond-for-equity = ~$134M more. Current net debt est. ~$500M. Still negative book value.

Short interest: ~5.35M shares (25% of float), DTC 7.76. Decreasing MoM — constructive per shr-023.

Price: ~$7.05-7.15. Range-bound $6-8 for 6 weeks. No breakout.

Insiders: Zero open-market purchases. Riley holds 20.1% but hasn't added. Neutral.

GA Group: No monetization. 47% stake + $183M preferred intact.

Analysts: Coverage abandoned. Stale $68 avg target is pre-crisis relic.

What Changed Since Mar 21

HOLD WATCHLIST — Do not enter. 10-K filing status is binary: clean filing + clean audit = re-rate toward $10 entry zone; missed filing or going concern = thesis dead. Wait for post-earnings clarity tonight. Kahn sentencing Apr 2 adds legal tail risk. All 4 entry conditions from Mar 21 framework remain unmet.