Verify date: 2026-05-28 | Price: $108.40 | Market cap: ~$5.0B
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current price | $108.40 |
| 52w High | $117.80 |
| 52w Low | $42.28 |
| Distance from 52w High | -8.0% |
| YTD Return (2026) | +110.8% |
| YTD start price | ~$51.50 |
ABBREVIATED REPORT TRIGGERED: YTD >80% (+110.8%) AND within 10% of 52w high (8.0% away). Both conditions met. Full screen run regardless because the thesis question — "sub-15x fwd P/E, has it rerated?" — needs quantitative closure for the layer tracker.
Diodes Incorporated (DIOD, NASDAQ) designs, manufactures, and markets discrete and analog semiconductors. Revenue mix: automotive (~25%), industrial (~20%), consumer (~30%), communications/computing (~25%). Fabless/fab-lite hybrid — owns back-end assembly in Asia (China, Taiwan, UK). Market cap $5.0B, ~46M shares outstanding.
Key recent event: Chairman and co-founder Dr. Keh-Shew Lu retired May 12 2026. Lu had led DIOD for 24 years. Angie Chen Button elected new Chair. Leadership transition risk elevated.
The stock was at $42.28 (52w low) before a +163% run to the current $108.40. The move is driven by:
The stock is up +163% from the 52w low in approximately 5 months. This is a momentum-driven rerating, not a value entry point.
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue FY2025 | $1.48B | -11% vs FY2022 peak $2.00B |
| Revenue FY2024 | $1.31B | Trough year |
| Revenue Q1 2026 | $405.5M (+22% YoY) | Recovery underway |
| Gross margin TTM | 31.3% | vs 5yr avg 36.5% — compressed |
| Operating margin TTM | 4.3% | vs 5yr avg 11.5% — severely compressed |
| Net margin TTM | 5.5% | vs 2022 peak ~16.6% |
| EPS FY2022 | $7.20 | Peak |
| EPS FY2023 | $4.91 | -32% from peak |
| EPS FY2024 | $0.95 | -87% from peak |
| EPS FY2025 | $1.43 | Partial recovery |
| EPS TTM | $1.85 | Recovering but far from peak |
| EPS FY2026E | $4.99 | Consensus; +239% YoY if delivered |
| Trailing P/E | 58.6x | Not investable on Graham basis |
| Forward P/E | 21.7x | Was "sub-15x" thesis — now 21.7x |
| P/B (annual) | 1.22x | Only metric near Graham comfort zone |
| P/B (quarterly) | 1.66x | |
| EV/EBITDA TTM | 52.8x | Severely elevated on depressed EBITDA |
| Total debt | $95.6M | Very low |
| Total cash | $404M | Net cash positive ~$308M |
| D/E ratio | 0.03x | Pristine balance sheet |
| Current ratio | 3.32x | Strong |
| FCF FY2025 | $137M | Recovering from $46M in FY2024 |
| ROE TTM | 4.5% | Far below cost of capital |
| Short % float | 5.4% | Low — no squeeze dynamic |
| Beta | 1.94 | High cyclical beta |
The recovery thesis is real but priced:
The auto/industrial recovery is real, but the market has already priced it: the stock is up 163% from the low and fwd P/E is 21.7x on consensus that requires $4.99 EPS delivery — a 239% jump from FY2025 actuals.
Discrete/analog semiconductors are commoditized at the low end. DIOD competes with:
DIOD moat assessment:
| Metric | DIOD | VSH (comparable) |
|---|---|---|
| D/E | 0.03x | ~0.7x |
| Net debt | -$308M (net cash) | Net debt ~$600M |
| Current ratio | 3.3x | ~2.0x |
| P/B | 1.2x (ann) | ~0.8x |
| Trailing P/E | 58.6x | ~25x |
| Forward P/E | 21.7x | ~13x |
| Dividend yield | 0% | ~1.5% |
DIOD has a cleaner balance sheet but is more expensive on every valuation metric vs VSH. The thesis "similar profile to VSH but smaller" is valid on the business side; on valuation, DIOD has rerated far more aggressively than VSH. If the auto/industrial recovery trade is the thesis, VSH is the better-valued expression of that same thesis.
| # | Filter | Value | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Size (Rev>$1.5B or MktCap>$2B) | Rev $1.48B, MktCap $5.0B | PASS |
| 2 | Strong financial condition (CR≥2, LTD≤WC) | CR 3.3x, Debt $96M vs WC $879M | PASS |
| 3 | Earnings stability (10yr uninterrupted profits) | Annual profits held but FY2024 EPS $0.95, Q1 2025 quarterly loss; EPS -87% from 2022 peak | WARNING |
| 4 | Dividend record (20yr continuous) | No dividend ever paid | FAIL |
| 5 | Earnings growth (>33% over 10yr) | 3yr EPS CAGR -41.7%, 5yr -5.4% — severe cycle downturn from $7.20 peak | FAIL |
| 6 | P/E ≤15x (trailing) | Trailing 58.6x, Forward 21.7x | FAIL (both) |
| 7 | P/B ≤1.5x (or P/E × P/B ≤22.5) | Ann P/B 1.22x OK, but P/E×P/B = 71x >> 22.5 | FAIL |
Score: 2 PASS, 1 WARNING, 4 FAIL
shr-017 cyclical trap flag: Like Maersk, DIOD scores attractively on balance sheet (filters 1-2) but is a cyclical coming OFF a peak earnings year (FY2022) with trailing metrics utterly unrepresentative of current earnings power. Unlike Maersk, DIOD is in a legitimate recovery — but the market has already priced it.
Trailing EPS ($1.85 TTM) — Graham Formula: V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
| Growth g | Graham IV | Current Price | Margin of Safety |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | $15.73 | $108.40 | -85.5% |
| 3% | $26.83 | $108.40 | -75.3% |
| 5% | $34.23 | $108.40 | -68.4% |
| 7.5% | $43.48 | $108.40 | -59.9% |
| 10% | $52.73 | $108.40 | -51.4% |
Forward EPS ($4.99 FY2026E consensus) — Graham Formula: V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
| Growth g | Graham IV | Current Price | Margin of Safety |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | $42.41 | $108.40 | -60.9% |
| 3% | $72.36 | $108.40 | -33.3% |
| 5% | $92.31 | $108.40 | -14.8% |
| 7.5% | $117.27 | $108.40 | +8.2% |
| 10% | $142.22 | $108.40 | +31.2% |
Implied growth rate (shr-003):
Interpretation: On trailing EPS, the stock requires negative margin of safety at ALL growth rates — it is wholly uninvestable on trailing metrics. On forward EPS ($4.99), the stock is fairly valued only if DIOD can sustain 7.5%+ long-term growth AFTER delivering the FY2026 recovery. Given DIOD's 3yr revenue CAGR is -10% and it operates in commoditized discrete/analog, sustaining 7.5%+ long-term EPS growth from a recovered base is optimistic. The break-even scenario requires both (a) FY2026 consensus delivery AND (b) structural growth acceleration — neither is secured.
Last 6 months (Nov 2025 – May 2026): PURE SELL signal
| Type | Count | Gross Value |
|---|---|---|
| Open-market PURCHASES (P) | 0 | $0 |
| Open-market SALES (S) | 26 | $189.9M |
| Grants/Awards (A) | 18 | n/a |
| Tax withholding (F) | 9 | n/a |
Key sellers:
This is systematic multi-C-suite selling (CEO + CFO + EVP + Chairman) across the entire price range from $47 to $110. Per shr-002, this is the strongest category of bearish insider signal — not options exercise, not grants, but open-market sales of owned stock. Zero purchases against ~$190M in sales. The CEO and CFO are selling aggressively into the rally at every level.
| Category | Signal | Color |
|---|---|---|
| Recent price action | +163% in 5 months from 52w low; -8% from all-time area | RED |
| Valuation vs thesis | Fwd P/E 21.7x (thesis was "sub-15x") — thesis invalidated | RED |
| Graham IV (trailing) | -85% to -51% MOS across all growth scenarios | RED |
| Graham IV (forward) | Only positive at g≥7.5% — requires consensus delivery + growth | RED |
| Insider activity | $190M in C-suite selling, ZERO buys, CEO+CFO+EVP all selling | RED |
| Earnings quality | Margins severely compressed; trailing EPS $1.85 vs $7.20 peak | RED |
| Analyst coverage | Only 2 analysts (thin); both Buy post-rally; PT mean $129.50 | AMBER |
| Balance sheet | Net cash $308M, CR 3.3x, D/E 0.03x | GREEN |
| Earnings recovery | Q1 2026 beat +27%, Q2 guide above est; real recovery underway | GREEN |
| Graham filters | 2 PASS, 1 WARNING, 4 FAIL | RED |
| Leadership risk | Long-serving Chairman (24yr) just retired May 2026 | AMBER |
| Competitive position | Commoditized discrete/analog; limited pricing power | AMBER |
RED count: 6 | AMBER count: 3 | GREEN count: 2
VERDICT LINE: RED — DO NOT BUY. The sub-15x fwd P/E thesis has fully expired. DIOD is now 21.7x forward on consensus earnings that require a 239% EPS recovery in one year, with $190M of systematic insider selling by the CEO, CFO, and EVP at current prices. Graham IV is negative at all reasonable growth rates on trailing EPS and requires 7.5%+ perpetual growth on forward EPS. The balance sheet is pristine (the one genuine positive), but that's already reflected in the rerating. If the auto/industrial recovery is the trade, VSH remains a relatively better-valued expression of the same thesis at lower P/E and P/B. Monitor for re-entry if the stock pulls back to $60–70 range (forward P/E ~12–14x) after a FY2026 earnings delivery season, with insider selling abating — that is the entry thesis, not today.
Screen data sources: yfinance (price, financials, history), Finnhub API (profile, metrics, insiders, news). Data as of 2026-05-28.