Pipeline Retro — 2026-06-21 (Fresh cycle, forced 5 days early) #
Phase 5 — Feedback loop: NO-OP (no new resolutions) #
This cycle was forced only 9 days after the 2026-06-12 full cycle. The 2026-06-12 retro already auto-resolved every prediction ≥30 days old (N=21 resolved). All currently-pending predictions are 9–21 days old, so there is nothing new to resolve.
- Unresolved predictions ≥30 days: 0 (
pm pipeline retro --dry-run confirmed)
- IC recomputation: skipped — insufficient new resolved data (need ≥5, have 0). Last computed IC stands: composite +0.255, graham −0.134, llm +0.055, reddit −0.025 (N=21, 2026-06-12).
- Weights: unchanged at v2 (2026-06-12). No adjustment on stale data per shr-033.
- Next resolutions due: ~2026-07-12, when the eight 2026-06-12 predictions reach 30 days.
Predictions ledger this cycle #
- Added 2 new predictions: APTV (WATCH, neutral, comp 54.5) and ELUX-B.ST (PASS, bearish, comp 52.0).
- Deliberately did not re-add 2026-06-12 predictions for re-analyzed tickers (DG, ADBE, DPZ, UHR.SW, DD, PAH3.DE, MCHP, PSKY) — adding near-duplicate observations 9 days apart would inject correlated data points and bias the next IC computation (shr-033).
- Total predictions: 31 (10 pending, 21 resolved).
Self-critique #
- Carried theme: fourth consecutive 0-GO cycle. The fortnightly screen keeps surfacing the same cyclical / no-margin-of-safety names because the broad market is expensive. This is the system working as designed (refusing to force trades), not a failure — but it is worth noting that the satellite's measured edge (per the 2026-06-12 retro: 2 of 14 cohort picks beat VWCE) argues for continued discipline, not for loosening the GO bar to "do something."
- One real change worth tracking: ADBE got both cheaper and structurally riskier in 9 days (CEO/CFO double vacancy + CEO's $18M sale at the old entry zone). The discipline of keeping it a WATCH despite a 20%-below-zone price is exactly the shr-026 / shr-002 muscle the playbook is built on — the crowd (12 subreddits bullish) is leaning the other way.
- Process note: forcing a fresh cycle 9 days early produced near-identical screen output and no new resolutions. Marginal value came almost entirely from the two new entrants and the same-day re-check of the watchlist near-misses (DG confirmed near trigger). Future early-forced cycles could skip straight to a targeted Phase 2 on (a) new entrants vs prior top-30 and (b) live watchlist triggers, rather than re-running the full 27-min screen — unless a fresh screen is specifically wanted.