ticker: 005930.KS layer: L6-Memory-Conglom verdict: yellow verify_date: 2026-05-28

Samsung Electronics — Graham Screen (2026-05-28)

1. Price & Returns

Common 005930.KS Preferred 005935.KS
Price KRW 299,500 KRW 190,900
Preferred discount -36.3%
52w High KRW 323,000 KRW 199,700
YTD +133% (from ~128K) +103% (from ~94K)
5y return (KRW) +314% (from 72K) +199% (from 64K)
EUR equiv. ~EUR 185 ~EUR 118

FX: USD/KRW ~1,500; EUR/KRW ~1,620 (1 EUR = 1,620 KRW). KRW has weakened ~25% vs EUR over 5 years — structural headwind for EUR investors.


2. Valuation Multiples

Metric Common Preferred
Trailing P/E (last 4Q EPS ~12,571) 23.8x 15.2x
Forward P/E (consensus) 5.6x 4.0x
P/B 4.07x 2.59x
P/S (TTM) 5.1x 3.2x
EV/EBITDA 13.3x 8.2x
Regular div yield 0.49% 0.78%

Dividend pattern: KRW 370/quarter regular + Q4 special (Q4 2025: KRW 566 vs 370 regular = 196 KRW special). Samsung's stated minimum KRW 9.8T annual shareholder return policy runs through 2026. Both share classes receive the same regular dividend per share; specials are irregular — do not rely on them in yield.


3. Balance Sheet (2025-12-31, KRW T = trillion)

Item Value
Cash + Short-term investments 125.8T
Total Debt 25.2T
Net Cash 100.6T
Working Capital 141.3T
Total Equity 424.3T
Current Ratio 2.54x
Net Cash / Mkt Cap ~5.1%

Net cash = 100.6T KRW (~EUR 62B). Zero financial distress risk. One of the strongest balance sheets in global tech.


4. Income & FCF (annual, KRW T)

Year Revenue Op Income Net Income EPS (KRW) FCF
2022 302T 43.4T 54.7T 8,057 9.1T
2023 259T 6.6T 14.5T 2,131 -16.4T
2024 301T 32.7T 33.6T 4,950 19.2T
2025 334T 43.6T 44.3T 6,603 33.2T
Q1 2026 134T (q) 57T (q) 47T (q) 7,123 (q)

Q1 2026 was Samsung's best quarter ever. DS (semiconductor) OP hit 53.7T in Q1 alone vs 1T in Q1 2025 — a 50x QoQ surge. 2023 was the memory downcycle trough (NAND+DRAM glut), not a structural impairment.

Foundry remains loss-making or near breakeven vs TSMC — the HBM4 base die ramp is the margin lever in 2026-2027.


5. Dividends (5y)

KRW 361/quarter (2021-2024) stepped up to 372 by Q1 2026. Q4 2025 had a special of 566 KRW (vs 370 regular). Zero dividend interruptions over 10+ years.


6. Insider / Lee Family

Control runs: Lee Jae-yong -> Samsung C&T -> Samsung Life -> Samsung Electronics. Family controls ~24% indirectly. Korean 5% disclosure rules apply — less granular than US Form 4. No open-market Lee family purchases or sales flagged in 2026. Alignment via control structure but no direct bullish insider signal. AMBER.


7. Analyst Coverage

37 analysts on common (strong buy, mean score 1.38/5.0). Mean target KRW 361,046 vs current 299,500 = +20.5% upside implied. High 590,000 / Low 205,000. Preferred: 4 analysts, mean target 260,263 vs 190,900 = +36.3% upside.

Post-Q1 upgrades across the board. HBM3E NVDA qualification (confirmed 2025, shipments Q3 2025+) removed the primary overhang. HBM sales expected to triple in 2026; 2026 HBM supply sold out.


8. Last 3 Quarterly EPS

Quarter Actual EPS (KRW) Consensus Surprise
Q3 2025 1,802 1,436 +25.5%
Q4 2025 2,909 2,361 +23.2%
Q1 2026 7,123 5,089 +40.0%

Acceleration unmistakable. Q1 2026 single-quarter EPS (7,123) > full-year 2025 EPS (6,603). Memory driven by HBM4 + server DRAM + enterprise SSD. Conventional DRAM also solidly profitable. Foundry declined QoQ (seasonality) but targets full advanced-node utilization Q2 2026.


9. News Last 90 Days


10. Cycle Context

Memory: Strong upcycle. HBM premium layer growing fast — Samsung now a qualified NVDA supplier. Risk: Samsung itself guided to a possible 2027 DRAM shortage-to-glut transition as HBM builds deplete conventional capacity.

Foundry: Still subscale vs TSMC. GAA (3nm) ramping but customer wins are limited. Not the near-term thesis.


Graham's 7 Filters

Filter Test Common Preferred
F1 Mkt cap > USD 2B PASS (USD 1.31T) PASS
F2 Current ratio >= 2.0; LT debt < WC PASS (2.54x; 25T < 141T) PASS
F3 Positive EPS 5-10yr PASS (trough 2023 = 2,131 — still positive) PASS
F4 Dividend uninterrupted PASS (10yr+) PASS
F5 >=33% normalized EPS growth PASS (2016e 1,435 -> 2025 6,603 = +360%) PASS
F6 P/E <= 15 (<= 20 quality) FAIL trailing 23.8x / PASS forward 5.6x PASS forward 4.0x
F7 P/E x P/B <= 22.5 FAIL trailing 96.9 / PASS forward 22.9 PASS forward 10.5

Score: 5/7 trailing; 7/7 forward. F6 and F7 fail trailing because the last-4Q EPS includes the 2023 trough (EPS 2,131). Per shr-003 and shr-004: for a company at a profitability inflection, forward P/E is the operative metric. The trailing failure is cyclicality, not a value-trap (shr-017 check: forward guidance is sharply UP, unlike Maersk).


Graham IV Sensitivity (V = EPS x (8.5 + 2g))

Trailing EPS = KRW 12,571 (last 4 actual quarters):

g IV (KRW) Common MoS Preferred MoS
0% 106,854 -180% -79%
3% 182,280 -64% -5%
5% 232,564 -29% +18%
7.5% 295,418 -1% +35%
10% 358,274 +16% +47%

Forward EPS = KRW 28,500 (conservative: Q1 2026 x 4):

g IV (KRW) Common MoS Preferred MoS
0% 242,250 -24% +21%
3% 413,250 +28% +54%
5% 527,250 +43% +64%
7.5% 669,750 +55% +72%
10% 812,250 +63% +77%

Key read (shr-003): trailing P/E 23.8x (common) vs forward P/E 5.6x is a 4.2x gap — the market is pricing a profitability inflection, not sustained high growth. Common clears F7 only on forward at >=3% growth. Preferred clears F7 on forward at 0% growth and on trailing at 5%+. Preferred dominates on every Graham metric.


shr-020 Red Flag Check

Category Status Detail
Recent price action RED +133% common / +103% preferred YTD — 2x rally from trough already in
Earnings/news GREEN Q1 2026 record — thesis strengthened post-data
Dividend status GREEN Uninterrupted; stepped up; special paid Q4 2025
Insider activity AMBER Complex Korean holding structure; no direct buy/sell signal in 2026
Analyst revisions GREEN Post-Q1 upgrades; mean target +20.5% common / +36.3% preferred
Short interest AMBER KRX short data not accessible via standard tools
Balance sheet GREEN Net cash 100.6T; zero solvency risk
FX risk RED KRW weakened ~25% vs EUR over 5yr; structural drag on EUR returns
Broker access RED KRX not on DEGIRO — hard execution blocker

Broker / FX / Liquidity (Critical for EUR Investor)

DEGIRO does not list KRX (Korea Exchange). Three options:

  1. SMSN.L on LSE — Samsung GDR admitted to London Stock Exchange Main Market in February 2025. The GDR represents preferred shares (non-voting, same dividend). If DEGIRO supports LSE, this is the cleanest access path. Verify spread before assuming it is tradeable at reasonable cost.
  2. SSNLF (US OTC) — common share equivalent, very low volume, wide spreads. Not suitable.
  3. Interactive Brokers or Saxo — direct KRX access; requires account migration.

FX path for LSE GDR: EUR -> GBP (at DEGIRO) -> KRW exposure. Double FX layer. KRW secular weakness vs EUR is a real return haircut.


Verdict

Fundamental case is compelling: 7/7 Graham on forward metrics, fortress balance sheet (100.6T net cash), HBM thesis de-risked by NVDA qualification, and clear earnings inflection confirmed by Q1 2026 record. Preferred (005935.KS / SMSN.L) is the structurally superior share class at every valuation metric — 36% discount, higher yield, lower P/B, lower EV/EBITDA — with the same earnings exposure.

Hard blockers for this portfolio:

  1. DEGIRO KRX access — verify SMSN.L on LSE before any sizing decision. If spread >1.5% or liquidity insufficient, this is inaccessible.
  2. YTD +103-133% rally — entry here is buying after a 2x move from trough. Forward P/E at 4x (preferred) is genuinely cheap if Q1 2026 momentum holds, but the inflection is now consensus. Waiting for a 15-20% pullback (preferred to ~KRW 162,000 or SMSN.L equivalent) materially improves MoS.
  3. KRW/EUR FX drag — reduces real EUR returns by 3-5%/year vs KRW-denominated returns historically.

Recommended path: (1) Verify SMSN.L on DEGIRO with live spread check. (2) Add to watchlist at preferred ~162,000 KRW (~EUR 100 equivalent via SMSN.L). (3) No tranche 1 at current levels — YTD rally too far advanced, entry pricing is not a Graham margin of safety entry.

VERDICT LINE: YELLOW — WATCHLIST. Preferred (005935.KS / SMSN.L GDR) passes Graham 7/7 on forward, meaningful MoS at forward EPS from 3%+ growth, fortress balance sheet, HBM thesis now de-risked. Three hard blockers prevent immediate buy: (1) verify SMSN.L DEGIRO access first — KRX is inaccessible via DEGIRO; (2) wait for 15-20% pullback from current levels before sizing T1 — YTD +103% rally precludes a Graham MoS entry today; (3) KRW/EUR secular weakness is a structural return headwind. Common (005930.KS) explicitly not recommended over preferred — 36% premium for no additional earnings or dividend rights.