Layer: L4-IDM-Auto | Screened: 2026-05-28 | Price: EUR 80.11
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current price (2026-05-28) | EUR 80.11 |
| 52-week high | EUR 80.37 |
| 52-week low | EUR 30.82 |
| Distance from 52w high | -0.3% (AT 52w HIGH) |
| YTD return (from EUR 37.97 on 2026-01-02) | +111.0% |
| Peak-to-trough (FY2025) | EUR 81 peak (FY2023) → EUR 28.67 (Apr 2025 low), -65% drawdown |
ABBREVIATED SCREEN TRIGGERED: YTD > 80% AND within 10% of 52w high. Full screening proceeds anyway as requested.
IFX has fully participated in and led the 2026 semi rally — doubling in 5 months from the April 2025 trough. It is NOT a laggard being held back by auto cycle headwinds. The stock has been violently rerated, not held back. The original thesis premise ("sub-13x fwd P/E... down 50% from peak") was accurate at EUR 40 in January; at EUR 80 today it is priced for significant recovery already.
Infineon Technologies AG (Frankfurt: IFX) is Europe's largest semiconductor company by revenue. Founded 1952 as Siemens semiconductor division; spun off 1999. HQ: Neubiberg, Germany. ~57,000 employees.
Business mix (FY2025, transitioning to 3-segment structure July 2026):
Key competitive moats: #1 auto MCU globally, #2 automotive power worldwide, European silicon-carbide leader (Dragon/Mamba product families), fab ownership (IDM model = capital-intensive but IP-protected).
4 segments → 3: Automotive, Power Systems, Edge Systems. Reads as operational simplification + messaging shift toward AI power narrative.
| FY | Revenue | Net Inc (cont.) | EPS (dil.) | OCF | Capex | FCF | Capex/Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 14.22 | 2.19 | 1.65 | 3.98 | 2.31 | 1.67 | 16.2% |
| 2023 | 16.31 | 3.14 | 2.38 | 3.96 | 2.99 | 0.97 | 18.3% |
| 2024 | 14.96 | 1.78 | 0.97 | 2.78 | 2.72 | 0.06 | 18.2% |
| 2025 | 14.66 | 1.01 | 0.76 | 3.22 | 2.09 | 1.12 | 14.3% |
| 2026E | 16.0+ | ~2.0-2.5 est | ~2.57 fwd | — | ~2.0-2.2 | — | — |
Capex note: Capex peaked at EUR 2.99B in FY2023 (building out SiC fab capacity, Kulim Malaysia expansion). FY2025 capex dropped to EUR 2.09B — disciplined contraction. This is the primary structural reason FCF recovered in FY2025 despite lower profits. FY2026 guidance implies further moderation.
Restructuring "Step Up" program: 1,400 jobs cut + 1,400 relocated (Aug 2024 announcement). EUR ~1B annual savings target by 2027. No forced redundancies in Germany (union agreement). Restructuring charges: EUR 139M (FY2024) + EUR 139M (FY2025) special items.
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Total assets | 30.47 |
| Total equity | 17.05 |
| Total debt (gross) | 7.22 |
| Cash + ST investments | 2.10 |
| Net debt | 5.47 |
| Net debt / equity | 0.32x |
| Net debt / EBITDA | 1.39x (normalized EBITDA EUR 3.92B) |
| Current assets | 9.82 |
| Current liabilities | 5.78 |
| Current ratio | 1.70x |
| Goodwill + intangibles | 11.12 |
| Tangible book value | 5.93 |
| Tangible BV per share | EUR 4.55 |
| Book value per share | EUR 13.10 |
Net debt is moderate and well-covered by EBITDA. The large goodwill/intangible load (EUR 11.1B) primarily from the Cypress Semiconductor acquisition (2020, USD 10B) makes tangible P/B misleading — Cypress brought real IP (PSoC, NOR Flash, EV battery mgmt), not financial engineering.
| # | Filter (Graham Defensive) | Result | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adequate size (>EUR 500M rev) | PASS | Rev EUR 14.66B, MktCap EUR 104B |
| 2 | Strong financial condition (CR ≥ 2.0x) | FAIL | CR = 1.70x |
| 3 | Earnings stability (10yr positive) | PASS | Profitable through 2015-2025; semi cycles produce compression not losses |
| 4 | Dividend record (20yr uninterrupted) | BORDERLINE FAIL | Paid since ~2001; COVID cut 2021 (EUR 0.22 vs 0.27 prior) breaks the 20yr uninterrupted standard; maintained and grown since |
| 5 | Earnings growth (≥1/3 over 10yr) | UNCERTAIN/FAIL | 4yr window shows 2023 peak EUR 2.38 → 2025 trough EUR 0.76; cyclical trough distorts; likely passes on 10yr basis but current trailing EPS is at a trough |
| 6 | P/E ≤ 15x | FAIL | Trailing P/E = 105x; Forward P/E = 31x |
| 7 | P/B ≤ 1.5x (and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5) | FAIL | P/B = 6.1x; combined test = 644x |
Score: 1/7 (hard filters), 2/7 (with #3 adjusted).
Cyclicality check (shr-017): IFX is a textbook cyclical IDM. FY2023 EPS was EUR 2.38; FY2025 EPS was EUR 0.76. The trailing screen at trough EPS produces a 105x trailing P/E — the filter failure is an artifact of the cycle trough, not permanent earnings destruction. HOWEVER, the question today (May 2026) is: has the cycle already normalized? At EUR 80 and fwd P/E 31x, the market is pricing a significant earnings recovery (consensus fwd EPS EUR 2.57 implies near-FY2023-peak earnings). The entry point that would have made this a Graham value setup was EUR 35-42 (Nov 2025–Feb 2026), not EUR 80.
| Growth rate | Graham IV | vs EUR 80.11 | Margin of safety |
|---|---|---|---|
| g = 0% | EUR 6.46 | -91.9% | DEEPLY OVERVALUED |
| g = 3% | EUR 11.02 | -86.2% | DEEPLY OVERVALUED |
| g = 5% | EUR 14.06 | -82.4% | DEEPLY OVERVALUED |
| g = 7.5% | EUR 17.86 | -77.7% | DEEPLY OVERVALUED |
| g = 10% | EUR 21.66 | -73.0% | DEEPLY OVERVALUED |
Break-even growth rate (trailing): 48.5% per year — impossible for a EUR 100B IDM.
| Growth rate | Graham IV | vs EUR 80.11 | Margin of safety |
|---|---|---|---|
| g = 0% | EUR 21.84 | -72.7% | DEEPLY OVERVALUED |
| g = 3% | EUR 37.27 | -53.5% | DEEPLY OVERVALUED |
| g = 5% | EUR 47.54 | -40.7% | OVERVALUED |
| g = 7.5% | EUR 60.39 | -24.6% | OVERVALUED |
| g = 10% | EUR 73.24 | -8.6% | FAIRLY VALUED (barely) |
| g = 11.3% | EUR 80.11 | 0% | PRICED IN |
Break-even growth rate (forward EPS 2.57): 11.3% per year.
For Infineon to be at fair value at EUR 80, you must believe:
Neither trailing nor forward EPS produces any margin of safety at EUR 80. The stock is priced for perfection on a recovery that has already happened in price terms.
Bull case: IFX is #2 globally in SiC (after STMicro, ahead of onsemi), with exposure to both EV powertrain and AI data center power. Dragon/Mamba SiC MOSFET families. EUR 1.5B AI power revenue target FY2026 partly SiC-driven.
Bear case / real risks:
Net: SiC is not the value driver at EUR 80. It is already in the price. The risk is downside from Chinese pricing pressure, not upside from SiC growth.
Peak-to-trough capex cycle is already behind us: EUR 2.99B (FY2023) → EUR 2.09B (FY2025), a EUR 900M reduction. This was the primary lever in FCF recovery (EUR 61M FY2024 → EUR 1.12B FY2025). Management guided further discipline in FY2026.
Implication: The capex normalization story has already been discovered and re-rated into the stock price. The +111% YTD move is partly this re-rating. At EUR 80, you are buying after the capex discipline news was absorbed, not before.
| Metric | Value | Graham threshold | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing P/E (FY2025 EPS 0.76) | 105.4x | ≤15x | FAIL |
| Forward P/E (FY2026E EPS 2.57) | 31.2x | — | Elevated |
| P/B (book) | 6.1x | ≤1.5x | FAIL |
| P/B (tangible) | 17.6x | — | FAIL |
| Net debt/EBITDA | 1.39x | — | Acceptable |
| Dividend yield | 0.44% | — | Negligible |
| Analyst consensus PT | EUR 65-68 | — | BELOW CURRENT PRICE |
| EPS consensus | EUR 2.57 fwd | — | Already rebounding |
Critical observation: The analyst consensus price target of EUR 65-68 is BELOW the current trading price of EUR 80.11. Even on the sell-side's most optimistic near-term scenario, the stock is trading above target. The high-end target is EUR 78-80.
| Category | Signal | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Price action | +111% YTD, AT 52w high | RED: momentum, not value |
| Graham filters | 1/7 pass | RED: fails all valuation filters |
| Forward IV | Graham IV @10%g = EUR 73 | RED: 0% MoS at current price even at 10% growth |
| Analyst consensus PT | EUR 65-68 | RED: consensus is BELOW current price |
| Auto HV margin | CEO: "unacceptable"; Chinese competition | RED |
| Balance sheet | CR 1.70x, net debt EUR 5.5B | AMBER |
| Dividend | Maintained EUR 0.35, 0.44% yield | AMBER: maintained but negligible yield |
| Earnings trajectory | Recovering (fwd EPS ~2.57 vs 0.76) | GREEN: cyclical recovery underway |
| Capex | Declining, FCF improving | GREEN |
| Business quality | #1 auto MCU, European semi champion | GREEN |
| AI power | Real and growing (EUR 1.5B FY26 target, backlog +EUR 4B QoQ) | GREEN |
| SiC | Real growth but Chinese pricing pressure | AMBER |
| German restructuring | Step Up program, EUR ~1B savings target by 2027 | AMBER: cost savings captured in guidance |
| Insider activity | No data available in this screen | UNVERIFIED |
Overall: 3 GREEN, 4 AMBER, 4 RED. The RED flags are all valuation-based and structural. The GREEN flags are operational — real things that have already been re-rated into EUR 80.
IFX.DE fails the Graham value screen comprehensively, but more importantly it fails the shr-020 pre-buy diligence test on price alone. The stock has already done the 50%+ re-rating that would have made it an interesting trough setup. At EUR 80:
Graham IV requires 11.3% perpetual growth on forward EPS just to break even — that is an aggressive assumption for a mature IDM in a competitive market with Chinese pricing pressure.
The analyst consensus PT of EUR 65-68 is 15-20% BELOW the current price. You would be buying above sell-side targets.
The thesis as written was correct 4 months ago (EUR 35-45 range, Jan-Feb 2026). The "down 50% from peak, sub-13x fwd P/E" characterization was valid then. Today, it has re-rated from trough to a growth stock premium.
Auto EV powertrain headwinds are real and ongoing. The stock has been re-rated on AI power optimism (EUR 1.5B → EUR 2.5B revenue targets) and general semi cycle recovery, but the structural margin pressure from Chinese SiC competition has not resolved.
Dividend yield 0.44% — essentially zero income protection.
| Entry level | Rationale | Graham IV context |
|---|---|---|
| EUR 58-62 (STRONG INTEREST) | Fwd P/E ~23x; Graham IV@10%g near parity; ~25% pullback from current | Break-even g drops from 11.3% to ~7.5% |
| EUR 45-50 (BUY ZONE) | Fwd P/E ~18-19x; 25% MoS at g=10%; ~40% pullback | Comparable to NVO setup per shr-012 |
| EUR 38-40 (FULL CONVICTION) | Near FY2025 trough; fwd P/E ~15x; Graham filter-passing territory | 25%+ MoS at g=7.5% |
A 40% pullback from EUR 80 to EUR 48 would require: either consensus EPS cut (auto deterioration), multiple compression (general semi de-rating), or macro shock. It is possible but not a base case in the current environment.
Trigger conditions for upgrading to AMBER:
Kill conditions for the AMBER-level thesis if price falls to EUR 58-62:
VERDICT LINE: 🔴 RED — IFX.DE has fully rerated from auto-cycle trough; trading at EUR 80.11 (+111% YTD), AT 52w high, above sell-side consensus PT of EUR 65-68, with Graham IV requiring 11.3% perpetual growth on forward EPS to justify current price. No margin of safety exists. Watchlist re-entry: EUR 58-62 (AMBER), EUR 45-50 (BUY ZONE). Thesis was valid at EUR 35-45 (Jan-Feb 2026); that window has closed.