Layer: L9-Discrete | Date: 2026-05-28 | Price at analysis: $52.41
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current price | $52.41 |
| 52w High | $52.46 |
| 52w Low | $11.77 |
| YTD return | +242.8% |
| Distance from 52w high | -0.1% (AT THE HIGH) |
ABBREVIATED threshold check: YTD >80% AND within 10% of 52w high → BOTH CONDITIONS MET. Per the screening protocol, this qualifies for ABBREVIATED treatment.
Decision: PROCEED TO FULL SCREEN ANYWAY — the user explicitly requested full screen with Graham 7 filters, Graham IV table, and sector context. The price action itself is the most important data point and shapes the entire verdict; abbreviated output would omit the context needed to justify the conclusion.
VSH is NOT a takeover/M&A situation. The move is 100% operational:
Trough earnings (2024-2025): VSH experienced a severe downcycle. Net income went negative in 2024 (-$31M) and 2025 (-$9M). EPS collapsed from $2.98 (2022) to near-zero. Revenue fell from $3.5B (2022) to $2.94B (2024).
Q1 2026 beat (May 13, 2026): Revenue $839.2M vs guidance $800-830M (+$9-39M beat). Book-to-bill 1.34 (semi 1.47, passives 1.23). Backlog $1.6B, up 21% sequentially = 5.7 months of coverage. Gross margin 21.0% recovering toward 22% Q2 guide.
Q2 2026 guidance above consensus: $875-905M vs ~$857M cons. Full-year management target $3.42B at $0.58 EPS. Stock launched from ~$15 at start of 2026, with the main acceleration in the two weeks post-earnings (May 20-28: $37 → $52, +40% in 8 days).
"Vishay 3.0" long-term ambition: Management targeting $5B revenue and low-30% gross margins by 2028-2029 (from $3.1B and 19-21% today). 12-inch German fab under construction ($400-440M capex in 2026), Newport (Idaho) fab ramping.
VSH started 2026 at $15.20 as a deep-cycle value stock. It ends May 2026 at $52.41 as a recovery momentum play. The thesis has inverted.
Vishay Intertechnology (NYSE: VSH) is one of the world's largest manufacturers of discrete semiconductors and passive electronic components. Market cap ~$7.1B at $52.41.
Product mix:
End market exposure (approximate, management disclosures):
Key takeaway: Auto+industrial is 65-75% of revenue — classic late-cycle recovery profile. AI exposure is minimal/indirect (factory automation side).
Automotive (Q1 2026): +2.7% sequential. Management cited OEM demand in Americas and Europe. Committed to supply EV platforms through 2028 production peak. Newport fab ramp is gated by automotive customer qualifications.
Industrial power (Q1 2026): +6.5% sequential — fifth consecutive quarter of sequential gains. Drivers: electrical power transmission, renewable energy, smart metering, factory automation. Two new smart grid design wins in UK.
Trajectory verdict: Automotive is recovering gradually (not explosively); industrial is the leading edge of the upcycle with consecutive quarterly momentum. The Q1 book-to-bill of 1.34 (semi 1.47) is a strong leading indicator that Q2 and H2 2026 will continue improving.
| Period | B2B Total | Semiconductor | Passive |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | 1.20 | N/A | N/A |
| Q1 2026 | 1.34 | 1.47 | 1.23 |
Backlog: $1.6B (+21% sequential), representing 5.7 months of revenue coverage. This is a very strong signal — typical healthy backlog is 2-3 months. 5.7 months implies customers are locking in supply well in advance, consistent with a genuine demand recovery, not pull-forward.
The semi B2B of 1.47 is particularly meaningful for MOSFETs and optoelectronics where lead times matter.
Vishay occupies a specific niche: it is a pure-play discrete + passives manufacturer, not a logic/MCU company. Its direct competitors:
| Company | Focus | VSH overlap |
|---|---|---|
| ROHM (Japan) | Discretes, SiC MOSFETs, power ICs | MOSFETs, diodes — direct competition |
| STMicroelectronics | MCUs, discretes, SiC | Discretes overlap; STM more logic-heavy |
| Renesas | MCUs, power management | Limited discrete overlap |
| Nexperia (private) | Discretes/logic | Direct competitor in diodes/MOSFETs |
| onsemi | SiC, power discretes | Overlaps in EV MOSFETs/diodes |
Management's Q1 language: "Previously inactive and underserved automotive and industrial customers are placing orders with us." This implies share recovery after losing customers during the downcycle — not necessarily structural share gain from ROHM/STM, but clawing back accounts lost when lead times stretched or pricing was uncompetitive.
Structural concern: ROHM and onsemi have both invested heavily in SiC MOSFETs for EV applications. VSH's MOSFET portfolio is primarily Si-based. SiC superiority in high-voltage EV inverters (~800V architectures) is a medium-term competitive headwind Vishay has not publicly addressed. The 12-inch German fab is for Si discretes and passives, not SiC.
Management did not disclose explicit utilization percentages in Q1 2026. However, the implied picture:
Inference from gross margin trajectory: 19% (2025 full-year) → 21% (Q1 2026) → 22% (Q2 2026 guidance) → "low 30s%" long-term target. Margin expansion confirms improving utilization across existing facilities. Capex-to-sales is still elevated (~$400-440M capex on ~$3.4B revenue = ~12-13%), which will suppress FCF throughout 2026.
Revenue (LTM 2025): $3.07B. EPS (2025): -$0.07. Current price: $52.41.
| Filter | Test | Result | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| F1: Sales >$1.5B | $3.07B | PASS | Solidly large company |
| F2: Current ratio ≥2.0 | 2.63x | PASS | Healthy working capital |
| F3: No net loss in past 10 years | Loss in 2024 (-$31M) and 2025 (-$9M) | FAIL | Two consecutive loss years |
| F4: Dividend ≥20 consecutive years | Paid since 2014 (gap from 2010-2013); ~12 years continuous | FAIL | 12 years uninterrupted, not 20 |
| F5: EPS growth (trailing 10yr or 7yr) | EPS: 2022 $2.98 → 2025 -$0.07 — massive decline | FAIL | Cyclical trough distorts |
| F6: P/E ≤15 | Trailing PE: ~5,000x (earnings trough); Fwd PE: 34x (cons 2026E $0.63) or 83x (mgmt guide $0.58) | FAIL | Even fwd PE is well above 15x |
| F7: P/B ≤1.5 | P/B = 3.43x | FAIL | Was ~0.9x in Jan 2026 — now well above Graham threshold |
Graham Score: 2/7 (F1 + F2 only). FAIL.
Per shr-017 forward check: Forward P/E at consensus $0.63 = 83x. At yfinance's $1.54 (likely reflects upward-revised company guidance) = 34x. Neither passes Graham's P/E ≤15 threshold even with the most optimistic near-term estimates.
The cyclical trap warning (shr-017) applies in reverse here: VSH was a valid Graham screen passer when it traded at $11-15 in late 2025/early 2026. At that price: P/B was ~0.75x (PASS), P/E on normalized earnings was ~5x (PASS), dividend yield was ~2.7% (present), and the downcycle losses reflected temporary margin compression, not structural impairment. The thesis in the user's brief was correct — AT THOSE PRICES.
At $52.41, VSH has repriced entirely: P/B 3.43x, fwd P/E 34-83x depending on EPS assumption, YTD +243%. The opportunity captured 3-4 months ago has already been realized in price.
Important caveats: Trailing EPS is $0.01 (trough — meaningless for IV). Graham's formula is designed for stable-earnings businesses. VSH is a cyclical at an inflection; use forward EPS as the base, but the range is wide.
| Growth | Graham IV | vs $52.41 |
|---|---|---|
| 0% | $5.36 | -89.8% |
| 3% | $9.13 | -82.6% |
| 5% | $11.65 | -77.8% |
| 7.5% | $14.80 | -71.8% |
| 10% | $17.96 | -65.7% |
| Break-even g | — | 37.3%/yr |
| Growth | Graham IV | vs $52.41 |
|---|---|---|
| 0% | $4.93 | -90.6% |
| 10% | $16.53 | -68.5% |
| Break-even g | — | 40.9%/yr |
| Growth | Graham IV | vs $52.41 |
|---|---|---|
| 0% | $11.98 | -77.1% |
| 5% | $26.08 | -50.2% |
| 7.5% | $33.13 | -36.8% |
| 10% | $40.18 | -23.3% |
| Break-even g | — | 14.3%/yr |
| Growth | Graham IV | vs $52.41 |
|---|---|---|
| 0% | $13.09 | -75.0% |
| 7.5% | $36.19 | -30.9% |
| 10% | $43.89 | -16.3% |
| Break-even g | — | 12.8%/yr |
Key insight (shr-003): The gap between trailing EPS (zero) and forward EPS ($0.63-1.54) is extreme, confirming the market is pricing a profitability inflection, not steady-state value. Even under the most optimistic EPS scenario ($1.54 at 12.8% required growth), Graham IV only reaches $44 — below the current price of $52. Under consensus 2026E ($0.63), the required growth rate of 37%/yr sustained for 7-10 years is unrealistic for a passive component maker.
The market is NOT pricing VSH as a Graham stock. It is pricing VSH as a cyclical recovery momentum trade — which is a valid investment thesis but a completely different framework.
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Total Debt | $1.10B | Includes $122M capital leases |
| Cash | $480M | + $307M accessible revolver |
| Net Debt | $622M | |
| ND/EBITDA (2025) | 2.15x | Elevated but manageable |
| ND/EBITDA (Q1 2026 ann.) | 1.92x | Improving with earnings recovery |
| Current Ratio | 2.63x | Comfortable |
| Book Value/share | $15.25 | $52.41 = 3.43x book |
| FCF 2022 | $159M | |
| FCF 2023 | $36M | Capex investment ramp |
| FCF 2024 | -$146M | Negative — capex cycle peak |
| FCF 2025 | -$89M | Still negative |
| 2026 FCF | Likely negative | $400-440M capex vs ~$324M ann. EBITDA |
FCF concern: VSH is in the middle of a heavy investment cycle (~$312M avg capex/yr over 4 years) that is absorbing all EBITDA and more. The 12-inch German fab is consuming capital through mid-2027. Until that fab contributes to revenue, FCF will remain negative or marginally positive. This is strategically sound (capacity for "Vishay 3.0") but creates execution risk. If the upcycle stalls, VSH will be burning cash with a leveraged balance sheet.
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ruplu Bhattacharya | BofA Securities | Sell | $28 |
| Peter Peng | J.P. Morgan | Hold | $20 |
| (1 undisclosed) | (undisclosed) | Strong Buy | N/A |
| Consensus | — | Hold | $34 |
All 3 analyst targets ($20-$40) are BELOW current price ($52.41). BofA's $28 Sell target implies -46.6% downside. The consensus $34 implies -35.1% downside. Even the most bullish accessible target ($40, J.P. Morgan post-upgrade per search results) is -23.7% below current price.
This is the clearest single data point: VSH has run past every analyst's fair value estimate in the post-earnings momentum surge. Analysts who cover the company professionally, with full model access, see 20-47% downside from here.
| Category | Signal | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Price action | +243% YTD, at 52w high | RED: extreme recent move, entering at the top |
| Thesis match | Graham value thesis was for $11-15 range | RED: thesis price mismatch — stock has already delivered |
| Earnings/news | Q1 beat, Q2 guidance above cons — all positive | GREEN |
| Insider activity | CEO bought at $15; no new buys at $52 | AMBER: was bullish, now neutral |
| Analyst consensus | All targets below current price; $34 median = -35% | RED |
| Graham filters | 2/7 PASS | RED |
| Graham IV | Even at best-case EPS, requires 12-14%/yr sustained growth for FCF to justify price | RED |
| FCF | Negative 2023-2026E; heavy capex cycle | RED |
| Dividend yield | 0.76% at current price | RED: no income cushion |
| P/B | 3.43x (was 0.75x at the right entry) | RED |
| Forward P/E | 34-83x depending on EPS source | RED |
| Competitive | SiC threat from ROHM/onsemi in EV MOSFETs | AMBER |
| Debt | ND/EBITDA 2.15x, negative FCF → leverage rising | AMBER |
Red flag tally: 7 RED, 2 AMBER, 1 GREEN.
VERDICT: RED — DO NOT BUY AT CURRENT PRICE
VSH at $15 in early 2026 was a textbook Graham value setup: P/B ~0.75x, sub-1x normalized earnings, CEO buying with own money, auto/industrial at cycle trough, book-to-bill starting to recover. That opportunity existed and is now GONE — captured by investors who were positioned before the Q1 earnings.
VSH at $52.41 is a completely different security:
Graham IV is deeply negative at ALL EPS scenarios. Even using the most optimistic forward EPS of $1.54 and a sustained 10% growth assumption, Graham IV = $43.89 — still 16% below current price. At realistic 2026 consensus EPS of $0.63, the market requires 37% sustained annual earnings growth — an absurd expectation for a passive component manufacturer.
P/B of 3.43x eliminates the asset floor. A core Graham protection is the book value backstop. At 0.75x book (early 2026), the downside was limited. At 3.43x book, book value provides zero protection on a 50%+ drawdown to prior trough prices.
Analyst consensus at $34 = -35% downside. This is not cherry-picked bearish opinion — it includes the BofA upgrade FROM $18 TO $28 post-earnings (already incorporating the upcycle). The stock has run far past even the upgraded targets.
FCF remains negative in 2026. The 0.76% dividend yield is not covered by free cash flow. The heavy capex cycle (German 12-inch fab, Newport ramp) absorbs all EBITDA through at least mid-2027. If the upcycle pauses or reverses, VSH faces cash burn with $622M net debt.
The thesis has already played out. The user's premise — "has it lagged the broader semi rally?" — is inverted. VSH has OUTRUN the broader semi rally by a huge margin: +243% YTD vs SOX roughly flat-to-slight positive. The deep cycle name caught up and then some.
If the upcycle stalls (book-to-bill drops below 1.0, backlog starts shrinking), or if capex execution disappoints on the German fab, VSH could retrace toward the $20-30 range. At $20: P/B ~1.3x (Graham territory), fwd P/E ~15x on 2027E consensus, Graham IV with 5% growth = $26 (modest MOS). That would be the re-entry thesis.
WATCHLIST CONDITION: Alert at $27 or below. Only reconsider as a Graham buy if:
The best re-entry window would be if execution on the German fab slips, causing a sentiment reset from momentum back to value. That would be the moment the Graham screen would be valid again.
VERDICT LINE: RED — VSH has tripled from its Graham entry point; at $52.41 it trades at 3.43x book, 34-83x forward P/E, and 35% above the highest analyst price target. All Graham IV scenarios show negative margin of safety. This is no longer a value stock. Add to watchlist at $27 (P/B ~1.8x, fwd P/E approaching 15x on 2027E earnings); revisit as a Graham candidate post-2027 when capex normalizes and FCF turns positive.
Sources: yfinance (price, financials, balance sheet, dividends); Vishay Q1 2026 earnings call transcript via Motley Fool / Investing.com; StockAnalysis.com (analyst consensus); Kavout market lens (segment detail); GF Value / Sahmcapital (valuation commentary). Data as of 2026-05-28.