Cycle: 2026-06-21 | Prior cycle: 2026-06-12 (9 days) | Universe: 966 (S&P 500: 503 + STOXX 600: 467) Verdict: 0 GO calls — fourth consecutive cycle. Any capital to deploy → VWCE. Live trigger: DG at ≤$105 (thesis confirmed, 3.5% away) becomes an immediate GO.
Fresh full screen (~27 min). 337 Graham-passed (score ≥3), 289 Magic-Formula scored, 266 Schilit-flagged. Composite ranked → output/pipeline/screens/composite-2026-06-21.json.
The screen is materially identical to 2026-06-12 (9 days prior): same top 11. Only changes in the top 30:
Top 10: UHR.SW, AKE.PA, DD, PAH3.DE, MOS, PSKY, MCHP, COF, TSN, ABBV.
Focused on what could produce a new decision: 2 new entrants + 3 live watchlist near-misses. Unchanged composite leaders carry their 2026-06-12 PASS verdicts (no earnings in the 9-day window).
| Ticker | Conviction | shr-043 gate | Decisive point |
|---|---|---|---|
| DG | WATCH (near-GO) | ✅ CLEAR (+3.4% rev, traffic+) | Margin recovery CONFIRMED: gross 29.9%→31.6%, op 4.0%→5.9% over 4 quarters; Q1 beat+raise. Price $108.69 = 3.5% above $105 GO zone. |
| APTV (new) | WATCH | ⚠️ AMBER | Post-Versigent-spinoff pure-play; fwd P/E 10.8x priced for ~0 growth; CEO open-market buy $352K @ $57.73 (shr-002+). But Intelligent Systems segment −1% adj (China cancellations). Entry $52–58 IF Q2 (Jul 30) confirms stabilization. Now $63.68. |
| ADBE | WATCH | ✅ stable (+12.7%) | Now $195 (20% below the $245 zone), cheap (7.1x fwd P/E, 9.4x SBC-adj P/FCF, break-even growth ~0%). BUT 2 new REDs: CEO stepping down + CFO left Jun 15 to Marvell (double vacancy); CEO sold $18.3M @ $244 Apr 28 (shr-002). Governance overrides valuation. |
| ELUX-B.ST (new) | PASS | ❌ HARD FAIL | North America organic −11.6%, accelerating (Section 232 tariffs + Frigidaire recall). 1/7 Graham, no moat, SEK 9B rights issue (65.65% dilution), 4yr neg FCF, dividend suspended. |
| DPZ | PASS | ❌ STILL FAILS | US SSS +5.2 → +3.7 → +0.9; accelerating deceleration, intl negative. Re-review after Q2 (Jul 20). |
Carry-forward PASS (from 2026-06-12, unchanged): UHR.SW (+66% off low, 26% above mean PT), DD (no MoS), PAH3.DE (VW shr-043 fail), MOS (no MoS), PSKY (avoid — WBD LBO), MCHP (priced + insider selling).
Scrape window 2026-06-07 → 2026-06-20 (17,850 posts, 258,832 comments, 2,714 tickers). 1 divergence.
Net: no verdict changes; overlay reinforces ADBE caution.
0 GO calls. Diversification/sizing rules are moot (nothing to place). Capital available to deploy this cycle → VWCE (per shr-019, build satellite from triggers, not by forcing deployment).
Ranked actionables by readiness:
Predictions recorded: APTV (WATCH, neutral) and ELUX-B.ST (PASS, bearish) added to predictions.json (now 31 total). DG/ADBE/DPZ + carry-forward names already have pending 2026-06-12 predictions; not duplicated to avoid correlated IC data points (shr-033).
Fourth straight VWCE cycle. The market remains expensive enough that the screen surfaces the same cyclical/no-MoS names each fortnight. The two things that changed in 9 days both argue for patience, not action: DG edged ~3% closer to its trigger (good — watch it), and ADBE got cheaper and structurally riskier (governance vacuum + insider selling — the cheapness is a trap until leadership resolves). Hold capital; let DG's price come to the thesis.