Pipeline Report — Cycle 2026-06-12 #
Question this cycle: EUR 1,000 available — does any opportunity beat VWCE?
Verdict: VWCE. 0 GO calls. Two near-misses (DG, ADBE) fail on entry timing, not thesis. Detail below.
Phase 1 — Screen #
- Universe: 966 (S&P 503 + STOXX 467). Fresh screen completed in 26m54s — first fresh run since 2026-04-20 (two prior attempts stalled on yfinance throttling).
- Graham pass (≥3/7): 334. Composite file:
output/pipeline/screens/composite-2026-06-12.json
- Top 10: UHR.SW 63.8, AKE.PA 60.5 (held), DD 60.3, PAH3.DE 59.4, MOS 58.5, PSKY 57.7, MCHP 57.4, COF 56.2, TSN 55.4, ABBV 54.9
Phase 2 — Deep dives (5 screen names + 3 triggered watchlist alerts) #
| Name |
Price |
Verdict |
One-line reason |
| DG (watchlist ≤105) |
$114.34 |
NEAR-GO — re-arm at ≤$105 |
Q1 beat + raised guide, 5 qtrs margin recovery, shr-043 PASS; but +10% above entry zone, zero insider buys |
| ADBE (watchlist ≤245) |
$218.80 |
NEAR-GO — small starter only, wait 1–2 wks |
7-yr low, SBC-adj P/FCF 10.6x, net share reducer, beat-and-raise; but CEO sold $271M + CFO quit abruptly (shr-002), ARR trigger passes on technicality only, downgrade cycle not done (shr-013) |
| UHR.SW (#1) |
CHF 206.70 |
PASS |
Inflection real (China Q4 +10.4%) but +66% off low, 26% ABOVE mean analyst PT, governance hard-red (AGM: family crushed activist w/ >80% of outside votes against them) |
| DD (#3) |
$46.84 |
PASS |
Post-spin quality, but breakeven Graham growth 5.5% ≈ guided growth → no MoS; +37% since spin; 1:3 reverse split Jun 24 |
| PAH3.DE (#4) |
EUR 30.85 |
DEFER |
36.6% NAV discount BUT VW (88% of div inflow) fails shr-043 — Q1 26 revenue decline accelerating, tariffs = NEW headwind (RI.PA pattern); 2 consecutive div cuts; ECJ overhang to 2027-28 |
| PSKY (#6) |
$10.49 |
AVOID |
TV Media decline accelerating (-4%→-6%), WBD close = ~3x share count + $79B combined debt, Altman Z 1.03, controlled co, 5/6 qtrs restructuring charges |
| MCHP (#7) |
$92.94 |
PASS |
Recovery real but priced: needs 16.3% sustained growth (SBC-adj fwd); CEO sold $56M + CFO + COO selling (shr-002); div was FCF-negative FY26; +106% off trough |
| DPZ (watchlist ≤300) |
$312.26 |
DEFER |
shr-043 FAIL: US SSS +5.2%→+3.7%→+0.9%, intl SSS negative, 3 of 4 EPS misses, zero insider buys |
Phase 3 — Reddit overlay #
19,125 posts / 256,750 comments, 14 days, 2,496 tickers. No divergence edge: EU names absent; ADBE broadly Reddit-bullish (9 subs) at the lows = consensus, not contrarian; DG minor squeeze chatter only. No fundamentally-sound-but-hated setups among candidates.
Phase 4 — Ranking and the EUR 1,000 decision #
The benchmark record (the decisive context):
- Apr 20 cohort (7 predictions): avg ≈ -8.4% vs VWCE +5.3% over the same window
- May 5 cohort (7 predictions): avg ≈ +0.3% vs VWCE +3.2%
- Only 2 of 14 beat VWCE. Conviction was anti-correlated with outcome (MEDIUM-HIGH PRU.L -13.1%; LOW UHR.SW +14.1%).
- Prior-cycle IC on first 7 resolved: -0.679.
EV/EUR comparison (shr-018), 12-month horizon, rough:
- VWCE: ~+7c/EUR expected, near-zero idiosyncratic risk, zero effort.
- DG at $114: ~+10c/EUR base (mean PT +14.8% + 2.1% div) but bear case -17% on tariff/consumer; at ≤$105 this was ~+20c/EUR. The discount that justified the alert is 60% gone.
- ADBE at $219: widest distribution. SBC-adj FCF yield ~9.4% + 4-5%/yr share shrink = ~10%/yr if multiple merely holds; -30% if Creative erosion accelerates. Leadership vacuum (CEO succession + interim CFO) means the kill-switch owner is unknown. Positive EV but high variance and shr-002 says insiders with the most information are selling, not buying.
Decision: deploy the EUR 1,000 to VWCE now. Rationale:
- Zero candidates pass all gates (Graham MoS + shr-043 + insider non-negative + entry zone) simultaneously.
- The pipeline's own track record says its marginal pick underperforms VWCE (2 cycles, 14 predictions, negative IC). Per shr-011: never force a bet — cash/VWCE is a position. Per the satellite-to-VWCE funnel rule: proceeds default to VWCE when no candidate beats it.
- The two near-misses remain capturable via standing alerts — no upside is lost by waiting for their zones:
- DG: re-arm watch at ≤$105 (was the zone; rallied through it post-earnings). At $105, P/FCF 10.5x / FCF yield 9.5% with the margin-recovery thesis CONFIRMED by Q1 — that is a buy on retest.
- ADBE: keep ≤$245 zone but add shr-013 gate — earliest entry ~Jun 25 (2 weeks post-earnings, downgrade cycle done), size USD 300 max (1 sh) per existing alert budget, and require no further C-suite departures. CEO succession announcement = re-evaluate entirely.
- AKE.PA T2 (EUR 52 trigger) and RI.PA T2 (Aug/Sep FY26 results gate) remain the standing satellite deployments — the EUR 1,000 in VWCE does not collide with them since they're funded from monthly contributions.
Diversification check: No new position → no sector-cap issues. Portfolio stays 4 satellite names + VWCE core.
Phase 5 — Feedback (see retro-2026-06-12.md) #
21 predictions now resolved (7 prior + 14 this cycle). IC and weight adjustments in the retro.
Generated by pipeline cycle 2026-06-12. Prior cycle: 2026-05-05 (0 GO calls — binary-catalyst cluster).