Verify date: 2026-05-28 | Data sources: yfinance, web search
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Price (2026-05-28) | JPY 19,740 (~EUR 106.4 at 0.00539 EUR/JPY) |
| 52w range | JPY 2,853 – JPY 22,330 |
| YTD return | +176% (JPY 7,145 → 19,740) |
| 5Y return | +731% (JPY 2,458 May-2021 → 20,425 May-2026) |
| Market cap | JPY 5.51T = EUR 29.7B = ~USD 32.3B |
The 52w low of JPY 2,853 (Jun-2025) to 19,740 today is a 592% move in under 12 months. This is not a trough-to-inflection setup — this is post-inflection, post-re-rating momentum. The stock was JPY 7,145 in Jan-2026 and JPY 13,480 in Apr-2026. Monthly close sequence: Jun-25: 3,157 → Sep-25: 4,469 → Oct-25: 7,294 → Jan-26: 8,214 → Apr-26: 13,480 → May-26: 19,740. A 592% rally in 12 months with current price at 88% of 52w high.
| Metric | Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Trailing P/E | 91.9x | FY2026 EPS JPY 214.9 |
| Forward P/E | 63.9x | FY2027 cons EPS JPY 308.96 |
| P/B | 10.0x | BV JPY 1,969/sh |
| P/S (trailing ~416B) | 13.1x | |
| P/S (fwd 500B guide) | 11.0x | |
| EV/EBITDA | 45x | |
| EV/Sales | 13.5x | |
| Dividend yield | 0.20% | JPY 40/sh annual |
| Payout ratio | 11.6% |
Note: yfinance analyst mean price target = JPY 11,553, median = JPY 9,600, high = JPY 21,000. Current price of JPY 19,740 is 71% above the mean analyst target. This is not a consensus-supported level.
| Item | JPY B |
|---|---|
| Cash & equivalents | 390.7B |
| Total debt | 343.1B |
| Net cash | +47.6B |
| LT debt | 253.0B |
| Working capital | 221.9B |
| Current ratio | 2.10 (yfinance info) / 1.68 (computed FY2025 BS) |
| Equity | 490.5B |
| D/E | 34.5% |
| Interest coverage | ~45x (EBIT 52.6B / interest 1.16B) |
Net cash position is positive. Balance sheet is solid despite the capex surge. Current ratio close to 2.0 borderline.
| FY | Revenue | EBITDA | EBIT | Net Inc | EPS | OCF | Capex | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2022 (Mar-22) | 401.1 | 112.2 | 59.5 | 41.2 | 186.9 | 108.4 | -67.2 | +41.2 |
| FY2023 (Mar-23) | 417.5 | 127.0 | 72.1 | 52.2 | 186.9 | 125.7 | -104.0 | +21.7 |
| FY2024 (Mar-24) | 370.5 | 94.2 | 48.1 | 31.5 | 112.4 | 145.2 | -86.4 | +58.8 |
| FY2025 (Mar-25) | 369.4 | 106.8 | 52.6 | 33.7 | 120.7 | 118.9 | -198.5 | -79.6 |
| FY2026 (Mar-26) | ~416* | ~124* | ~63* | ~63.7* | 214.9 | — | — | -47.5** |
*FY2026 partial from yfinance info (ebitda 124.4B); net profit 63.7B per earnings report. **yfinance freeCashflow -47.5B (TTM).
Key observation: Capex went from JPY 67B (FY2022) → 104B (FY2023) → 86B (FY2024) → 199B (FY2025). This is the ABF capacity build-out. FCF went deeply negative in FY2025 — FCF destruction is at its peak. The planned JPY 500B capex program over FY2026–FY2028 (first phase JPY 220B) means FCF will remain negative for 2–3 more years. This is cash-consuming growth, not Graham-style capital-light value.
FY2027 guidance: Revenue JPY 500B, operating profit JPY 90B. Electronics segment guide: JPY 330B revenue, JPY 75B operating profit (+70% YoY op profit).
| FY | Per-share JPY | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | 17.5 | (10+7.5) |
| FY2022 | 25.0 | (10+15) — peak cycle |
| FY2023 | 20.0 | (10+10) — no cut despite trough |
| FY2024 | 20.0 | (10+10) |
| FY2025 | 20.0 | (10+10) |
| FY2026 | 25.0 | (10+15) — recovery |
Dividend maintained through the 2022–2025 trough without cuts. F4 passes. Note: at JPY 40/sh annual vs price JPY 19,740, yield is 0.20% — effectively zero yield, offering no income floor.
yfinance returns empty insider transaction data for 4062.T — consistent with Japanese disclosure norms (Form 4 equivalent filings not systematically available via US data providers). Ibiden insider ownership ~10.6% per yfinance, institutional ownership 70.6%. No insider data available to assess directional signal.
| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Cons | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2026 (Dec-25) | 31.99 | 36.98 | -13.5% MISS |
| Q4 FY2026 (Mar-26) | 117.14 | 46.40 | +152.5% BEAT |
Q4 FY2026 blowout: EPS of JPY 117 vs JPY 46 consensus driven by electronics segment surge (+70% op profit). Revenue missed (117.6B vs 121.1B estimate) — top line came in light, but margins expanded dramatically. FY2027 guidance: Revenue JPY 500B (+20%), operating profit JPY 90B (consensus FY operating income target +90% guide vs maintained estimates). Electronics segment FY2027 guide raised to JPY 330B / JPY 75B op profit.
Ibiden is the dominant ABF substrate maker in a triopoly (Ibiden + Shinko Circuit + Unimicron). The 2022–2025 cycle: PC/server inventory correction crushed substrate demand; Ibiden revenue fell from JPY 417B peak (FY2023) to JPY 369B trough (FY2024–FY2025). EPS halved from JPY 186 to JPY 112.
Recovery trajectory: FY2026 Q4 EPS of 117 in a single quarter vs prior 4-quarter run rate of ~33/qtr indicates the utilization inflection has already happened — violently. Substrate utilization for AI/HPC packages is recovering driven by NVDA Blackwell, AMD MI300+ orders, and Intel Ponte Vecchio/EMIB ramps. The recovery is no longer anticipated — it's printing.
FY2027: JPY 500B revenue guide is a +35% lift from FY2025 trough. The inflection has been priced in and then some. Analysts remain behind the curve (consensus was JPY 46 for a quarter that printed JPY 117).
| Filter | Test | Result | Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| F1 Market cap >USD 2B | USD 32.3B | PASS | — |
| F2 Current ratio ≥2.0 | 2.10 (info) / 1.68 (computed) | MARGINAL | Borderline |
| F2b LT debt < Working capital | LT debt 253B > WC 222B | FAIL | Cyclicality — capex-driven borrowing |
| F3 Positive EPS 10y | All positive FY2022–FY2026 | PASS | — |
| F4 Dividends uninterrupted | No cuts since 2020+ | PASS | — |
| F5 EPS growth ≥33% (5y) | +15% trailing; +65% to FY2027E | BORDERLINE | Forward passes; trailing fails |
| F6 P/E ≤15 (≤20 quality) | Trailing 91.9x, Forward 63.9x | FAIL | Not cyclicality — pure momentum premium |
| F7 P/E × P/B ≤22.5 | 91.9 × 10.0 = 920 | FAIL | Not cyclicality — pure growth pricing |
F2b, F6, F7 failures: Classification:
| g | V (trailing 214.9) | V (forward 309.0) | MoS trailing | MoS forward |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 1,827 | 2,626 | -90.7% | -86.7% |
| 3% | 3,116 | 4,480 | -84.2% | -77.3% |
| 5% | 3,976 | 5,716 | -79.9% | -71.0% |
| 7.5% | 5,050 | 7,261 | -74.4% | -63.2% |
| 10% | 6,125 | 8,805 | -69.0% | -55.4% |
Break-even growth rate: 41.7% (trailing) / 27.7% (forward EPS)
At forward EPS, you need to believe Ibiden can compound EPS at 28% per year indefinitely to justify today's price by Graham's formula. Given that FY2027 guide implies ~44% EPS growth (309 vs 215), the single-year forward growth is very high — but Graham's formula requires sustained long-run growth, and substrate demand is cyclical. The AI capex cycle will normalize. shr-003 applies: the gap between trailing g=41.7% and forward g=27.7% shows the market is pricing a multi-year high-growth regime, not just one good quarter.
| Category | Signal | Color |
|---|---|---|
| Recent price action | +592% in 12mo, +176% YTD, near 52w high | RED |
| Valuation vs IV | Price 3-5x above IV at any reasonable growth rate | RED |
| Analyst consensus vs price | Price 71% above mean PT, 106% above median PT | RED |
| FCF | Deeply negative (-79.6B FY2025, -47.5B TTM); JPY 500B capex plan ahead | RED |
| Balance sheet | Net cash positive, interest coverage 45x | GREEN |
| Earnings quality | Q4 FY2026 152% beat — legitimate, not one-time (margin expansion) | GREEN |
| Dividend | Maintained through trough, payout ratio 11.6% | GREEN |
| Thesis integrity | Inflection is real — but already fully priced + premium | RED |
| Insider signal | No data available | AMBER |
| Short interest | Not flagged; institutional ownership 70.6% | AMBER |
4 RED, 3 GREEN, 2 AMBER. All reds are valuation/momentum, not fundamental.
VERDICT LINE: RED — Ibiden is the right company at the wrong price.
The thesis hook is correct: Ibiden is the dominant ABF substrate maker, the trough was real (EPS halved FY2022→FY2024), and the recovery has arrived (Q4 FY2026 +152% EPS surprise, FY2027 guide +20% revenue). But the screen was best run in Jun–Sep 2025, when the stock was JPY 3,000–4,500 and the recovery was anticipated, not printed.
Today at JPY 19,740:
This is a momentum trade, not a Graham value position. The shr-017 warning applies in reverse: trailing prints look great now, but the market has already priced in the forward inflection and added a speculative tech-cycle premium on top. Entry now would require thesis continuity (AI capex cycle stays elevated through FY2028+) and confidence that the stock can grow into a 64x forward P/E — both are outside the Graham framework.
Watchlist at: JPY 5,000–7,000 (forward P/E ~16–23x on FY2027 EPS, Graham F6/F7 borderline territory). That level would require a 65–75% drawdown from current price, which would only occur on AI capex cycle disappointment — precisely the scenario that invalidates the thesis. This is a structural non-overlap with the Graham satellite strategy.