Verified: 2026-05-28 | Sources: yfinance, SCREEN IR, Investing.com earnings transcript
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | 11,030 JPY (last: 11,220 May 27) |
| 52w range | 4,951 – 13,155 JPY |
| YTD | ~-7% from ~11,900 Jan open |
| 1Y | +110% (reflecting stock split-adjusted base) |
| 5Y | +385% vs ~2,280 JPY May 2021 |
| Stock split | 2-for-1 effective March 30, 2026 |
| JPY/EUR | ~162.5 (1 share ≈ EUR 67.88) |
| Multiple | Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Trailing P/E | 22.7x | FY2026 EPS 486.95 JPY |
| Forward P/E | 19.0x | FY2027 guide EPS 581.74 JPY (IR) |
| P/B | 4.29x | Book 2,573 JPY/sh |
| P/S | 3.44x | Rev 605.7B JPY TTM |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.5x | Net cash heavy; EV = 1.90T JPY |
| Div yield | 1.59% | FY2027 guide 175 JPY/sh |
| Payout ratio | 30% | Conservative; room to grow |
| Beta | 1.57 | Cyclical |
| Item | JPY bn |
|---|---|
| Cash + ST investments | 200.4 |
| Total debt | 4.6 |
| Net cash | 195.8 |
| Working capital | 240.3 |
| Current ratio | 2.28 |
| LT debt (excl. leases) | 0.8 |
| Equity | 420.6 |
| Interest coverage | ~1,000x (trivial debt) |
Balance sheet is fortress-quality. Net cash 195.8B JPY = ~9.4% of market cap. LT debt is immaterial.
| FY (ends Mar) | Revenue JPY bn | EBITDA | Net Income | EPS | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2022 | 411.9 | 66.6 | 45.5 | 231.5 | 71.6 |
| FY2023 | 460.8 | 87.5 | 57.5 | 296.3 | 53.1 |
| FY2024 | 504.9 | 105.2 | 70.6 | 304.1 | 55.9 |
| FY2025 | 625.3 | 151.7 | 99.5 | 362.8 | 45.7 |
| FY2026 | 605.7 | 151.7 | 92.0 | 487.0 | ~40-46 est |
| FY2027 guide | 725.0 | ~180E | 110.0 | 581.7 | — |
Note: FY2025 = year ended March 31, 2025; FY2026 = year ended March 31, 2026. Revenue CAGR FY22-26: 10.1% | EPS CAGR FY22-26: 20.4%
Segment mix (FY2026):
SPE dominates entirely. The other segments are low-margin noise.
FCF declining: FY22 was peak cycle; FY24-26 FCF compressed by heavy capex (new fab capacity, R&D facilities). FY2027 capex guide 43B JPY same as FY2026.
| Year | DPS (JPY) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| FY2020 | 15 | — |
| FY2021 | 33 | — |
| FY2022 | 147 | +345% — China boom surge |
| FY2023 | 133 | Interim 41.75 + final 91.25 |
| FY2024 | 130 | 60 + 70 |
| FY2025 | 155.5 | 61.5 + 94 |
| FY2026 | 146.5 | Full year paid |
| FY2027 guide | 175.0 | +19% increase guided |
Consecutive years: 6+ uninterrupted, growing. However the violent swings (15 → 147 → 130 → 175) track the WFE cycle closely. Not the stable Nestlé-style dividend Graham assumed; this is a cyclical payout.
No open-market purchase or sale data available through Western data providers for Japanese corporates. Leadership transition announced: Toshio Hiroe → Chairman; Masato Goto → President/CEO; Yoichi Kondo continues as CFO. No reported large insider selling flagged in public sources. NEUTRAL — insufficient data; Japan disclosure norms differ from SEC Form 4.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Consensus | 8 Buy/StrongBuy, 6 Hold, 1 Sell (15 analysts) |
| Mean PT | 12,790 JPY (+16%) |
| Median PT | 12,000 JPY (+9%) |
| High PT | 18,200 JPY |
| Low PT | 9,500 JPY |
| 90d revision | Stable — no major PT cuts (16 analysts reduced PTs post-peak Feb, but consensus held) |
Q4 FY2026 (reported May 2026):
Q3 FY2026 (Dec 2025 quarter):
Pattern: Three straight quarters of EPS misses vs consensus before Q4 beat. Revenue consistently missing. EPS beat in Q4 driven by margin management, not revenue strength.
FY2027 management guide:
China revenue: 38% of FY2026 sales (~230B JPY). Management guides China to "stabilize mid-to-high 30% range." Export control impact estimated 10-15% on China investment if enacted — "not at all certain, timing unclear."
Customer mix: HBM/memory focus (SK Hynix, Micron), TSMC advanced node, Samsung. Management: "record high order in SPE in Q4" and "record high post-sales revenue." Order intake outpacing deliveries → FY2027 has visible backlog.
SCREEN's SPE orders are heavily exposed to: (1) memory HBM ramp (strong through 2026), (2) TSMC advanced node (N2/N3 ramp continuing), (3) China legacy node (wild card — may have peaked given controls). The "record Q4 order intake" is bullish for FY2027 delivery visibility. However:
| # | Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| F1 | Mkt cap > USD 2B | PASS | USD 14.6B |
| F2 | Current ratio ≥ 2.0, LT debt < WC | PASS | CR 2.28; LT debt 0.8B vs WC 240B |
| F3 | Positive EPS 5-10y | PASS | All 5 years positive, accelerating |
| F4 | Dividend uninterrupted | PASS | 6+ consecutive years |
| F5 | ≥33% EPS growth 5y | PASS | +110% cumulative (FY22→26) |
| F6 | P/E ≤ 15 (≤20 quality) | FAIL | 22.7x trailing, 19.0x forward |
| F7 | P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 | FAIL | 22.7 × 4.29 = 97.1 |
Score: 5/7. Fails on both valuation filters — and not narrowly.
shr-017 Peak-Cycle Trap Check: F5 passes on a 5Y EPS CAGR of 20.4%, but FY2022-FY2024 benefited from the extreme China build-out (China 43% of sales in FY2024 vs 19% prior). FY2026 revenue declined 3.1% YoY. The trailing EPS of 487 JPY may be near-peak-cycle normalized earnings, not trough earnings. Passing F3/F5 on cyclically inflated numbers is exactly the trap shr-017 warns against.
| Growth | IV (trailing 487) | MoS | IV (fwd 582) | MoS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 4,139 JPY | -62.5% | 4,945 JPY | -55.2% |
| 3% | 7,061 JPY | -36.0% | 8,435 JPY | -23.5% |
| 5% | 9,009 JPY | -18.3% | 10,762 JPY | -2.4% |
| 7.5% | 11,443 JPY | +3.7% | 13,671 JPY | +23.9% |
| 10% | 13,878 JPY | +25.8% | 16,580 JPY | +50.3% |
Break-even growth (trailing EPS): 7.1% — the market requires 7.1% perpetual growth just to be fairly priced at current EPS. Break-even growth (fwd IR EPS): 5.2% — if FY2027 guide delivers, fairly priced at ~5% growth.
Context: SCREEN's 5Y EPS CAGR was 20.4%, but this is cycle-inflated. A "normalized" through-cycle EPS growth for a mature WFE supplier is probably 8-12%. The break-even at trailing EPS (7.1%) is within realistic range — but offers zero margin of safety at trailing earnings. At forward earnings, a 5.2% break-even is achievable but requires the FY2027 guide to actually land, which itself requires no incremental China control tightening and a continued HBM capex wave.
| Category | Signal | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Recent price action | +110% 1Y; down 16% from 13,155 peak | AMBER — off peak, not distressed |
| Revenue trend | FY2026 -3.1% YoY despite WFE upcycle | RED — declining revenue in "up" cycle |
| Earnings trend | 3 EPS misses before Q4 beat | AMBER |
| China exposure | 38% of sales; export control risk active | RED — material and unresolved |
| Order book | "Record Q4 order intake" — management claim | GREEN — if credible |
| FY2027 guide | +19.7% revenue — aggressive | AMBER — depends on no new restrictions |
| Balance sheet | Fortress; net cash 195B JPY | GREEN |
| Insider activity | No data; leadership transition | NEUTRAL |
| Analyst consensus | Majority Buy/Hold, mean PT +16% | GREEN |
| Valuation | Trailing P/E 22.7x, P/B 4.29x | RED — not a Graham price |
| Dividend stability | Cyclically volatile (15→147→130→175 JPY) | AMBER — not stable like a defensive |
| WFE cycle position | Mid-upcycle; risk of flattening CY2026 | AMBER |
| EUR FX | JPY/EUR: buying JPY at historically weak levels | GREEN (JPY cheapness = bonus) |
Active REDs: 3 (revenue declining, China controls, valuation). GREEN: 4. AMBER: 5.
YELLOW — WATCHLIST, NOT BUY
SCREEN Holdings is an excellent business. Global #1 in single-wafer cleaning, fortress balance sheet, growing dividend, no debt. It passes 5/7 Graham filters on headline numbers. But the investment case breaks down on two fronts:
Valuation is not Graham. P/E 22.7x trailing, P/B 4.29x, P/E×P/B = 97.1 (target ≤22.5). This is a quality-growth multiple, not a value multiple. The break-even growth rate at trailing EPS (7.1%) leaves zero margin of safety. Graham IV at a realistic 5% growth is 9,009 JPY — 18% below the current price. The stock would need to trade at ~8,500-9,000 JPY before a 33% margin of safety opens up even at forward earnings.
shr-017 cyclical trap: Revenue declined 3.1% in FY2026 even as management described a WFE upcycle. The prior revenue peak (FY2025: 625B JPY) was inflated by the China build-out (43% of sales) — which is now unwinding due to export controls. The "5Y EPS CAGR 20.4%" that passes F5 is largely driven by the China windfall era, not durable structural growth. If China normalizes to 25-30% of sales under controls, a through-cycle normalized EPS is likely 350-400 JPY, not 487 JPY. At 350 JPY normalized EPS and 15x P/E (Graham quality multiple), fair value is ~5,250 JPY — less than half the current price.
China risk unresolved. 38% of revenue concentrated in a market facing active and tightening export restrictions. Management's "10-15% impact if enacted" is self-serving — the direction of travel in US-Japan-China tech policy is clearly restrictive and has not reversed.
Entry threshold: Worth revisiting at 7,500-8,000 JPY (15-16x forward earnings on the FY2027 guide of 582 JPY EPS, and closer to 20x normalized EPS of ~380 JPY). That is a ~28-32% decline from current levels — possible only in a WFE down-cycle or a meaningful China revenue shock.
Do not buy at 11,030 JPY. The business deserves a premium multiple; the current price just doesn't offer a Graham entry.
VERDICT LINE: YELLOW — Watchlist at 7,500-8,000 JPY (-28% to -32%); no entry at 11,030 JPY. Trailing P/E 22.7x and P/B 4.29x fail Graham by wide margins; break-even growth 7.1% on trailing EPS with zero MoS; FY2026 revenue -3.1% despite WFE upcycle flags peak-cycle trap (shr-017); China 38% exposure under active export control pressure is unresolved RED.