VICI Properties Inc. (VICI) - Comprehensive Market Analysis

Analysis Date: December 4, 2025

Data Source: yfinance

Executive Summary

VICI Properties Inc. (VICI) is an S&P 500 experiential real estate investment trust (REIT) with a market capitalization of $30.25B. The company owns a premier portfolio of gaming, hospitality, and entertainment destinations including Caesars Palace Las Vegas, MGM Grand, and the Venetian Resort Las Vegas.

Current Status: Moderate Value Candidate (Graham Score: 5/7 = 71.4%) Current Price: $28.30 (-0.53% from previous close) Analyst Consensus: BUY with 26.24% upside to target mean of $35.73

1. Current Market Data

Price and Quote Data

• Current Price: $28.30
• Previous Close: $28.45
• Daily Change: -$0.15 (-0.53%)
• Day Range: $28.11 - $28.64
• 52-Week Range: $27.98 - $34.03
• Current vs 52-Week High: 16.8% below high
• Current vs 52-Week Low: 1.1% above low
• Volume: 8,389,574 (vs Avg: 10,042,019)
• Market Capitalization: $30.25B

Trading Statistics

• Beta: Not available from current data
• Average Volume (10-day): Not available from current data
• Short Interest Data: Not available from current data

2. Key Financial Metrics for Graham Analysis

Valuation Ratios

Profitability Metrics

• Gross Margin: 99.07%
• Operating Margin: 97.67%
• Profit Margin: 70.18%
• Return on Assets (ROA): 5.01%
• Return on Equity (ROE): 10.36%

Dividend Analysis

• Dividend Yield: 636.00% (Note: This appears unusually high - may be data anomaly)
• Dividend Rate: $1.80 per share annually
• Payout Ratio: 66.44%
• 5-Year Average Yield: 498.00%
• Ex-Dividend Date: Not available from current data

Financial Health

Cash Flow Analysis

• Free Cash Flow: $1.28B
• Operating Cash Flow: $2.46B
• Enterprise Value: Not available from current data

3. Company Profile

Business Overview

• Company: VICI Properties Inc.
• Sector: Real Estate
• Industry: REIT - Diversified
• Country: United States
• Website: https://www.viciproperties.com
• Employees: 27

Business Description

VICI Properties Inc. is an S&P 500 experiential real estate investment trust that owns one of the largest portfolios of market-leading gaming, hospitality, wellness, entertainment and leisure destinations, including Caesars Palace Las Vegas, MGM Grand and the Venetian Resort Las Vegas, three of the most iconic entertainment facilities on the Las Vegas Strip. VICI Properties owns 93 experiential assets across a geographically diverse portfolio consisting of 54 gaming properties and 39 other experiential properties.

4. Historical Performance Analysis

5-Year Performance (2020-2025)

• Start Price (Dec 2020): $20.03
• Current Price (Dec 2025): $28.30
• Total Return: 41.31%
• Annualized Return: 7.19%
• Annualized Volatility: 21.76%
• YTD Return (2025): 1.69%

Risk Metrics

• Standard Deviation (Annualized): 21.76%
• Sharpe Ratio: Not calculated (risk-free rate needed)

5. Earnings and Analyst Estimates

Earnings Per Share

• Trailing EPS: $2.63
• Forward EPS: $2.73
• EPS Growth Estimate: 3.80%

Analyst Coverage

• Number of Analysts: 22
• Consensus Recommendation: BUY
• Recommendation Mean: Not available from current data

Price Targets

6. Institutional Ownership and Insider Data

Top Institutional Holders

1. Vanguard Group Inc: 156.75M shares ($4.44B) - ~5.2% of outstanding
2. Blackrock Inc.: 115.06M shares ($3.26B) - ~3.8% of outstanding
3. State Street Corporation: 62.54M shares ($1.77B) - ~2.1% of outstanding
4. Capital Research Global Investors: 51.35M shares ($1.45B) - ~1.7% of outstanding
5. JPMORGAN CHASE & CO: 46.82M shares ($1.32B) - ~1.5% of outstanding

Share Structure

• Shares Outstanding: Not available from current data
• Float Shares: Not available from current data
• Shares Short: Not available from current data
• Short Ratio: Not available from current data
• Short % of Float: Not available from current data

Insider Transactions

Note: Detailed insider transaction data requires Finnhub API access

7. Graham's Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) Analysis

Balance Sheet Data (as of Dec 31, 2024)

• Current Assets: $18.98B
• Total Liabilities: $18.42B
• Net Current Assets (NCAV): $563.74M
• NCAV per Share: $0.53

Graham's NCAV Test

• Current Price: $28.30
• 1.5 × NCAV/Share: $0.79
• Price/(1.5×NCAV): 53.65 ✗ FAIL (>1)

Interpretation: The stock fails Graham's NCAV test, trading at 53.65 times the 1.5×NCAV threshold. This is common for REITs and profitable companies, as Graham's NCAV test is designed for distressed or deeply undervalued situations.

8. Graham Value Investing Score Summary

Score: 5 out of 7 Criteria Met (71.4%)

Interpretation

MODERATE VALUE CANDIDATE - VICI meets 5 out of 7 Graham criteria. The main failures are:

1. High debt/equity ratio (62.92 vs target <0.5) - common for REITs due to property financing
2. Fails NCAV test - typical for profitable, going-concern companies

9. Investment Considerations

Strengths

1. Strong Valuation Metrics: P/E of 10.76 and P/B of 1.09 are attractive
2. Excellent Profit Margins: 70.18% profit margin indicates efficient operations
3. Strong Liquidity: Current ratio of 37.05 provides financial flexibility
4. Analyst Support: 22 analysts with BUY consensus and 26% upside
5. Dividend Payer: Consistent dividend payments with 66.44% payout ratio

Risks and Concerns

1. High Debt Levels: Debt/equity of 62.92 exceeds Graham's conservative threshold
2. Sector Concentration: Heavy exposure to gaming and hospitality real estate
3. Economic Sensitivity: Performance tied to consumer discretionary spending
4. Interest Rate Sensitivity: REITs are sensitive to interest rate changes

Graham-Specific Analysis

• For Conservative Value Investors: Mixed results - passes valuation tests but fails debt and NCAV tests
• For Modern Value Investors: Attractive given reasonable valuations and strong cash flows
• REIT-Specific Context: High debt levels are industry-standard for property acquisitions

10. Data Limitations and Notes

Data Source Limitations

1. Primary Source: yfinance (free, no API key required)
2. Missing Data: Some fields (beta, detailed short interest, insider transactions) require Finnhub API
3. Dividend Yield Anomaly: Reported 636% yield appears incorrect - likely data issue
4. Timeliness: Data as of market close on analysis date

Recommendations for Further Analysis

1. Verify Dividend Data: Cross-check with official SEC filings
2. Analyze Debt Structure: Examine maturity schedule and interest rates
3. Review Property Portfolio: Assess geographic and tenant diversification
4. Monitor Interest Rates: Track impact of monetary policy on REIT valuations
5. Check Insider Activity: Use Finnhub API for recent insider transactions

11. Conclusion

VICI Properties Inc. presents a moderate value opportunity according to Graham's criteria, scoring 5 out of 7. The company shows strong valuation metrics, profitability, and analyst support, but carries higher debt levels typical of the REIT sector.

Key Takeaways:

• Attractive P/E (10.76) and P/B (1.09) ratios
• Strong profit margins (70.18%) and cash flow generation
• Analyst consensus suggests 26% upside potential
• High debt/equity ratio (62.92) is a concern for conservative investors
• Fails Graham's stringent NCAV test, but this is expected for profitable REITs

Suitable For: Investors comfortable with REIT sector risks, seeking exposure to experiential real estate with reasonable valuations.

Not Suitable For: Ultra-conservative Graham-style investors requiring low debt and NCAV bargains.

Analysis generated on: December 4, 2025 Data Source: yfinance via Python script Script: /home/pengacau/pasar-malam/scripts/vici_graham_analysis.py Output Files: /home/pengacau/pasar-malam/output/vici_graham_analysis_20251204.json