TX Quantitative Quick Reference
Generated: Dec 3, 2025, 22:54 EST | Price: $38.44 | YTD: +55.64%
VALUATION SNAPSHOT
| Metric |
Value |
Sector Avg |
Discount/Premium |
| P/E (Trailing) |
13.3x |
17.9x |
-26% discount |
| P/E (Forward) |
5.2x |
N/A |
Deeply cheap |
| P/B |
0.63x |
1.40x |
-55% discount |
| P/S |
0.48x |
N/A |
Below 1x |
| Div Yield |
7.17% |
1.06% |
+576% premium |
RISK METRICS
| Metric |
Value |
Interpretation |
| Beta (3Y vs SPY) |
0.786 |
21% less volatile than market |
| Annual Volatility |
29.4% |
Moderate-high |
| Daily Volatility |
1.85% |
Typical daily swing |
| Correlation to SPY |
0.408 |
Low correlation |
| R-squared |
0.167 |
83% idiosyncratic risk |
TECHNICAL LEVELS
Current Price: $38.44
| Level |
Type |
Price |
Distance |
| R1 |
Strong Resistance |
$39.86 |
+3.7% |
| R2 |
Resistance |
$38.27 |
-0.4% |
| Current |
— |
$38.44 |
— |
| 20-day SMA |
Support |
$36.30 |
-5.6% |
| 50-day SMA |
Support |
$36.00 |
-6.3% |
| 200-day SMA |
Major Support |
$31.49 |
-18.1% |
| S1 |
Strong Support |
$26.90 |
-30.0% |
Trend: Above all MAs = Bullish
RSI: 63.16 = Neutral (not overbought)
MOMENTUM
| Period |
Return |
Status |
| 1-Month |
+8.3% |
Strong |
| 3-Month |
+11.2% |
Strong |
| 6-Month |
+34.8% |
Very Strong |
| YTD |
+55.6% |
Exceptional |
| vs SPY (YTD) |
+35% outperformance |
Leading |
DIVIDEND
- Current Yield: 7.17%
- Indicated Yield: 9.55%
- Annual Rate: $2.70/share
- Payout Ratio: 93.1% (high)
- 5Y Growth Rate: 20.9% CAGR
- Sustainability: Medium (93% payout, neg FCF but pos OCF)
BALANCE SHEET
- Current Ratio: 2.46x (Strong)
- Quick Ratio: 1.40x (Adequate)
- Debt/Equity: 13.9% (Very Low)
- Net Cash: +$502M
- Interest Coverage: 11.9x (Strong)
PROFITABILITY
| Metric |
Current |
5Y Avg |
Status |
| Gross Margin |
13.9% |
25.5% |
Compressed |
| Operating Margin |
5.4% |
15.8% |
Compressed |
| Net Margin |
3.7% |
9.4% |
Recovering |
| ROE |
2.9% |
13.4% |
Depressed |
| ROA |
1.4% |
8.2% |
Depressed |
Outlook: Margins compressed in down-cycle, expected to recover
EARNINGS
- TTM EPS: $2.90
- Forward EPS: $7.34 (est)
- Q3 2025: $0.10 (missed $0.84 est by -88%)
- Q2 2025: $1.10 (beat by +31%)
- Volatility: High (cyclical)
ANALYST CONSENSUS
- Total Coverage: 20 analysts
- Strong Buy: 4 (20%)
- Buy: 9 (45%)
- Hold: 6 (30%)
- Sell: 1 (5%)
- Bullish %: 65%
- Est Price Target: $42-45 (10-17% upside)
PEER COMPARISON
| Ticker |
P/E |
P/B |
Div |
Beta |
Margin |
| TX |
13.3 |
0.63 |
7.17% |
1.30 |
3.72% |
| MT |
12.7 |
0.60 |
1.26% |
1.68 |
4.23% |
| NUE |
23.1 |
1.81 |
1.39% |
1.87 |
5.18% |
| STLD |
22.8 |
2.79 |
1.19% |
1.48 |
6.39% |
| CLF |
N/A |
1.18 |
0% |
1.98 |
-9.0% |
Relative Position: Cheapest valuation, highest yield, lower beta
KEY RISKS
- Margin Compression - Gross margin 13.9% vs 25% historical
- Negative FCF - -$767M TTM (high capex phase)
- Earnings Volatility - Q3 miss -88%, highly cyclical
- High Payout - 93% payout ratio limits flexibility
- LatAm Exposure - Currency/political risks
- Steel Down-Cycle - Revenue -11.7% YoY
INVESTMENT THESIS QUANTIFIED
Bull Case Probability Factors:
- Deep valuation discount: -26% P/E, -55% P/B
- Forward P/E of 5.2x implies major earnings recovery priced in
- 7.17% yield 6x higher than peers
- Technical breakout: Above all MAs, testing ATH
- Analyst support: 65% bullish ratings
Bear Case Probability Factors:
- Margin recovery uncertain (13.9% → 25% required)
- Dividend at risk (93% payout, negative FCF)
- Cyclical exposure (steel down-cycle)
- Execution risk (Usiminas write-down, Q3 miss)
Quantitative Edge:
- Beta 0.786 = portfolio diversifier
- 29.4% vol vs 35%+ for peers = relative stability
- Low correlation (R²=0.17) = alpha opportunity
- Technical momentum strong (RSI 63, +55% YTD)
DATA SOURCES
- Real-time Quote: Finnhub API (Dec 3, 2025, 22:36 UTC)
- Historical Data: yfinance (752 daily bars, 3 years)
- Financials: yfinance + Finnhub (through Q3 2025)
- Volatility/Beta: Calculated from 3-year daily returns
- Peer Data: yfinance (6 steel sector comps)
All data files: /home/pengacau/pasar-malam/output/tx_*.{json,md}
RECOMMENDED MODELS
- DDM (Dividend Discount): Use 7.17% yield, 20.9% growth, 93% payout
- Relative Valuation: TX vs sector on P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA
- Monte Carlo: 29.4% vol, 0.786 beta, $36 support, $40 resistance
- Margin Recovery: Model scenarios 14% → 18% → 25% gross margin
- Dividend Sustainability: Stress test OCF, capex cycle, payout flexibility
Priority: Quantify margin recovery probability and dividend cut risk
For full analysis: See tx_comprehensive_quant_report_2025-12-03.md (571 lines)