Connors Mean-Reversion Playbook

Budget: €1,200 | Date: December 29, 2025 (Updated)

Order Status: ✅ PLACED

Orders placed: Dec 29, 2025 Cancel if unfilled: Dec 31, 2025 EOD

Position Sizing (DEGIRO-Adjusted for Small Account)

Why 50% positions? With €1,200, the standard 15% (€180) creates 3%+ fee drag which destroys the edge. Larger positions reduce percentage impact of fixed costs.

Top 2 Setups (Ranked by Setup Quality)

1. CCL (Carnival Corporation) - CRUISE SECTOR

Why CCL?

• RSI(2) = 0.0 confirmed Dec 29
• NR4 + NR7 patterns (volatility compression)
• Wells Fargo PT upgrade to $38 (31% upside from limit)
• No earnings until Feb 2025
• Cruise sector momentum intact

Caution: Holiday volume is thin (0.1x average). May see wider spreads.

2. SYF (Synchrony Financial) - CONSUMER FINANCE

Why SYF?

• RSI(2) = 0.0 confirmed Dec 29
• Diversifies away from cruise sector (different risk profile)
• Consumer finance sector with stable business model
• No immediate earnings catalyst

Note: Fewer shares (7) but same percentage exposure as CCL.

Order Execution Plan

MONDAY DEC 29 - PRE-MARKET PREP (TODAY)
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ 1. Check EUR/USD rate (estimate position in USD)        │
│ 2. Review overnight futures (avoid if S&P -1%+)         │
│ 3. Confirm no earnings announcements for CCL/SYF        │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

MONDAY DEC 29 - ORDER PLACEMENT (after 9:30 AM ET open)
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ CCL: Limit Buy @ $29.08 GTC                             │
│ SYF: Limit Buy @ $80.47 GTC                             │
│                                                          │
│ Order Type: GTC (Good Till Cancelled)                   │
│ Duration: Cancel if not filled by Tue Dec 31 close      │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Exit Decision Tree

Position Open
    │
    ├─► Gain ≥ 2.5%? ────────────────────► EXIT (take profit)
    │   CCL: $29.81+  |  SYF: $82.48+
    │
    ├─► RSI(2) > 70 AND Gain ≥ 1.5%? ────► EXIT
    │   CCL: $29.51+  |  SYF: $81.68+
    │
    ├─► Close > 5MA AND Gain ≥ 1.0%? ────► EXIT
    │   CCL: $29.37+  |  SYF: $81.27+
    │
    ├─► Day 3+ AND NOT profitable? ──────► EXIT MOC
    │
    ├─► Down ≥ 5%? ──────────────────────► EXIT (stop loss)
    │   CCL: $27.63   |  SYF: $76.45
    │
    └─► None of above? ──────────────────► HOLD overnight

Economic Calendar Awareness

Recommendation: If position not profitable by Jan 2 close, exit before Jan 3 ISM PMI.

Risk Limits

Alternate Setups (If CCL/SYF Don't Fill)

HBAN (Huntington Bancshares) - Budget-friendly option

• Current: $17.66
• Limit: $16.78 (5% below)
• RSI(2) = 0.0
• ~35 shares at €600 (maximum share count)
• Regional bank - more volatile

NCLH (Norwegian Cruise Line) - Same sector as CCL

• Current: $22.41
• Limit: $21.29 (5% below)
• RSI(2) = 0.0
• ~27 shares at €600
• Use only if you want double cruise exposure

Summary Checklist

✓ Monday AM: Check EUR/USD rate
✓ Monday AM: Confirm no overnight disasters
✓ Monday 9:30 ET: Place CCL limit @ $29.08 (21 shares)
✓ Monday 9:30 ET: Place SYF limit @ $80.47 (7 shares)
□ Daily 3:30 PM: Check position P/L
□ If losing at 3:30 PM: Exit before close
□ If 2.5%+ gain: Take profit immediately
□ Tuesday Dec 31 EOD: Cancel unfilled orders (Jan 1 closed)
□ Jan 2 EOD: Exit if ISM risk concerns

Expected Outcome (if both fill)

This is a thin-edge grind. Discipline on entries (5% limit only) and exits (min 1.5% gain) is what keeps it positive EV.

Changes from Original Playbook

Source Data

• Screening: uv run pm connors screen --sp500 --passing-only
• Economic Calendar: /home/pengacau/pasar-malam/economic-events/2025-12-29.json
• System Rules: /home/pengacau/pasar-malam/docs/10-day-trading-system-factors.md
• DEGIRO Adjustments: /home/pengacau/pasar-malam/docs/connors-degiro-adjustments.md
• Validation: Stock data analyst check Dec 29, 2025