SPT (SPROUT SOCIAL) - QUICK FACTS

As of December 3, 2025

STOCK SNAPSHOT

Current Price:     $10.39  (+1.12%)
52-Week Range:     $9.16 - $36.30
Market Cap:        $608M
YTD Performance:   -66.12% ⚠️

VALUATION SCORECARD

P/E Ratio (TTM):    N/A (unprofitable)
Forward P/E:        14.64  ✓
P/B Ratio:          10.58  ⚠️
P/S Ratio:          1.37   ✓ (attractive for SaaS)
Price/FCF:          18.60  ✓

GROWTH METRICS

Revenue Growth:     +13.09% YoY  ✓
Revenue (TTM):      $444M
Gross Margin:       ~78%         ✓ (excellent)
Operating Margin:   -10.43%      ⚠️
Net Margin:         -10.59%      ⚠️
Free Cash Flow:     $100M        ✓ (strong)
FCF Margin:         22.5%        ✓

EARNINGS TRACK RECORD (Last 4 Qtrs)

Q3 2025:  $0.23 vs $0.16 est  (+42% beat) ✓
Q2 2025:  $0.18 vs $0.15 est  (+18% beat) ✓
Q1 2025:  $0.22 vs $0.15 est  (+45% beat) ✓
Q4 2024:  $0.19 vs $0.15 est  (+24% beat) ✓

FINANCIAL HEALTH

Current Ratio:      0.95   ⚠️ (below 1.0)
Quick Ratio:        0.90   ⚠️
ROE (TTM):          -26%   ⚠️
ROA (TTM):          -10.7% ⚠️
Beta:               0.89   ✓ (less volatile than market)

ANALYST OUTLOOK

Target Price:       $17.64
Current Price:      $10.39
Upside Potential:   +69.8%
Analysts Covered:   11
Recent Trend:       Downward (from $22.82 to $20.60)

INSIDER ACTIVITY

Recent Trend:       HEAVY SELLING ⚠️⚠️⚠️
Notable Sales:      $2.4M (Del Preto, Nov)
                    $4.5M (Howard, Sep)
                    $12M  (Barretto, Sep - tax)
Pattern:            Consistent selling Q3-Q4 2025

KEY CATALYSTS

✓ AI-powered engine launched (Nov 2025)
✓ Consistent earnings beats (4 quarters)
✓ Strong FCF generation despite losses
⚠️ SMB segment weakness
⚠️ Stock down 66% YTD
⚠️ Heavy insider selling

INVESTMENT THESIS

BULL CASE

• Stock down 66% despite solid execution (value opportunity?)
• Beating earnings by 20-45% consistently
• $100M FCF on $444M revenue (22.5% margin)
• P/S of 1.37x very cheap for 13% growth SaaS
• 70% upside to analyst targets
• New AI features expanding TAM

BEAR CASE

• Stock decline reflects real problems
• Insider selling signals lack of confidence
• SMB weakness could spread to enterprise
• Current ratio <1.0 = liquidity risk
• Unprofitable on GAAP basis
• Growth may be slowing
• Analyst targets being reduced

VERDICT

Graham Score:        F (fails profitability, liquidity tests)
Growth Score:        B (solid growth, improving margins)
Value Score:         B+ (cheap on P/S, strong FCF)
Risk Score:          C- (insider selling, stock decline)
Opportunity Score:   A- (potential turnaround play)

BOTTOM LINE:
SPT presents a classic "value trap or opportunity?" situation. Strong fundamentals (13% growth, $100M FCF, consistent beats) clash with terrible stock performance (-66% YTD) and heavy insider selling. Only for investors comfortable with:

1. High risk/high reward setups
2. Potential 2-3 year holding period
3. Catching falling knives
4. Going against insider sentiment

NEXT EARNINGS: February 23, 2026

Files Generated:

• Summary Report: /home/pengacau/pasar-malam/output/spt_data_summary.md
• Quick Facts: /home/pengacau/pasar-malam/output/spt_quick_facts.md
• Finnhub Data: /home/pengacau/pasar-malam/output/spt_finnhub_data.json
• yfinance Data: /home/pengacau/pasar-malam/output/spt_yfinance_data.json
• Data Script: /home/pengacau/pasar-malam/scripts/spt_comprehensive_data.py