TX (Ternium S.A.) - Comprehensive Market Data Summary
Data Collected: December 3, 2025
Sources: Finnhub API, yfinance
Company Overview
| Field |
Value |
| Company Name |
Ternium S.A. |
| Ticker |
TX |
| Exchange |
New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) |
| Sector |
Basic Materials |
| Industry |
Steel / Metals & Mining |
| Country |
Luxembourg |
| Website |
https://www.ternium.com |
| IPO Date |
February 1, 2006 |
1. Current Price Data (Real-Time)
| Metric |
Value |
| Current Price |
$37.68 |
| Previous Close |
$37.23 |
| Day Change |
+$0.45 (+1.21%) |
| Day Open |
$37.25 |
| Day High |
$37.76 |
| Day Low |
$36.90 |
| Bid |
$37.68 |
| Ask |
N/A |
| Volume (Day) |
156,332 shares |
| Average Volume |
201,261 shares |
| 52-Week High |
$38.15 (Oct 28, 2025) |
| 52-Week Low |
$24.00 (Apr 9, 2025) |
| 50-Day Average |
$35.91 |
| 200-Day Average |
$31.97 |
Price Performance
| Period |
Return |
| 5-Day |
+5.08% |
| 13-Week (3 Months) |
+13.22% |
| 26-Week (6 Months) |
+34.76% |
| 52-Week |
+13.60% |
| YTD |
+29.57% |
2. Key Financial Metrics
Valuation Ratios
| Metric |
Value |
Graham Assessment |
| P/E Ratio (TTM) |
12.52 |
Below 15 - PASS |
| Forward P/E |
5.13 - 9.01 |
Very attractive |
| P/B Ratio |
0.61 |
Below 1.5 - PASS |
| P/S Ratio (TTM) |
0.47 |
Very low - attractive |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) |
9.05 |
Reasonable |
| EV/Revenue (TTM) |
0.52 |
Very low |
| PEG Ratio |
0.02 |
Extremely low |
Graham Number Calculation
- Book Value Per Share: $61.01
- EPS (TTM): $2.90
- Graham Number = sqrt(22.5 x $2.90 x $61.01) = $63.16
- Current Price: $37.68
- Discount to Graham Number: 40% - SIGNIFICANT MARGIN OF SAFETY
Per Share Data
| Metric |
Value |
| Trailing EPS |
$2.90 |
| Forward EPS |
$7.34 |
| Book Value Per Share |
$61.01 |
| Tangible Book Value Per Share |
$55.82 |
| Cash Per Share |
$14.06 (quarterly) |
| Revenue Per Share (TTM) |
$80.03 |
3. Dividend Information
| Metric |
Value |
| Dividend Yield (TTM) |
7.17% - 7.25% |
| Indicated Annual Dividend |
$2.70 |
| Dividend Rate |
$2.70 |
| Payout Ratio |
93.1% (yfinance) / 106.8% (Finnhub TTM) |
| 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate |
20.9% |
Recent Dividend History
| Date |
Amount |
| 2025-05-09 |
$1.80 |
| 2024-11-18 |
$0.90 |
| 2024-05-02 |
$2.20 |
| 2023-11-10 |
$1.10 |
| 2023-05-04 |
$1.80 |
| 2022-11-14 |
$0.90 |
| 2022-05-05 |
$1.80 |
Note: High payout ratio (>100% TTM) is concerning - dividend may not be sustainable at current levels without improved earnings.
4. Financial Statements Summary
Market Capitalization & Enterprise Value
| Metric |
Value |
| Market Cap |
$7.31 - $7.40 billion |
| Enterprise Value |
$77.79 billion |
| Shares Outstanding |
196.3 million |
| Float |
429.5 million shares |
Income Statement (Annual - FY2024)
| Metric |
FY2024 |
FY2023 |
FY2022 |
FY2021 |
| Total Revenue |
$17.65B |
$17.61B |
$16.41B |
$16.09B |
| Gross Profit |
$2.89B |
$3.56B |
$3.93B |
$6.20B |
| Operating Income |
$1.24B |
$2.18B |
$2.80B |
$5.28B |
| Net Income |
-$53.7M |
$676.0M |
$1.77B |
$3.83B |
| EPS (Basic) |
-$0.30 |
$3.40 |
$9.00 |
$19.50 |
Profitability Margins
| Metric |
TTM |
Annual |
5-Year Average |
| Gross Margin |
14.0% |
16.4% |
25.5% |
| Operating Margin |
5.6% |
4.8% |
15.8% |
| Net Profit Margin |
3.7% |
-0.3% |
9.4% |
Balance Sheet (Most Recent Quarter - Q3 2025)
| Metric |
Value |
| Total Assets |
$23.47 billion |
| Total Liabilities |
$7.17 billion |
| Stockholders' Equity |
$11.98 billion |
| Total Debt |
$2.26 billion |
| Cash & Equivalents |
$1.32 billion |
| Net Debt |
$0.94 billion |
Balance Sheet (Annual - FY2024)
| Metric |
Value |
| Total Assets |
$23.13 billion |
| Total Liabilities |
$7.00 billion |
| Stockholders' Equity |
$11.97 billion |
| Total Debt |
$2.44 billion |
| Cash & Equivalents |
$1.69 billion |
Liquidity & Solvency Ratios
| Metric |
Value |
Graham Benchmark |
| Current Ratio |
2.46 (quarterly) |
>2.0 - PASS |
| Quick Ratio |
1.40 (quarterly) |
>1.0 - PASS |
| Debt-to-Equity |
13.86% |
Very Low - PASS |
| Long-Term Debt/Equity |
12.48% |
Very Low - PASS |
| Interest Coverage (TTM) |
11.9x |
>5x - PASS |
Cash Flow (FY2024)
| Metric |
Value |
| Operating Cash Flow |
$1.91 billion |
| Capital Expenditure |
-$1.87 billion |
| Free Cash Flow |
$40.7 million |
| Free Cash Flow (yfinance) |
-$767.0 million |
5. Efficiency & Profitability Metrics
| Metric |
TTM |
5-Year Average |
| Return on Assets (ROA) |
2.48% |
8.22% |
| Return on Equity (ROE) |
4.86% |
13.38% |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) |
4.03% |
11.44% |
| Asset Turnover |
0.67x |
N/A |
| Inventory Turnover |
2.95x |
N/A |
| Receivables Turnover |
5.87x |
N/A |
6. Recent Earnings (Quarterly)
| Quarter |
Actual EPS |
Estimate |
Surprise |
% Surprise |
| Q3 2025 |
$0.10 |
$0.84 |
-$0.74 |
-88.07% |
| Q2 2025 |
$1.10 |
$0.84 |
+$0.26 |
+31.12% |
| Q1 2025 |
$0.34 |
$0.65 |
-$0.31 |
-47.84% |
| Q4 2024 |
$1.43 |
$0.76 |
+$0.67 |
+88.38% |
Key Observation: Highly volatile earnings with significant misses and beats. Q3 2025 was a major disappointment.
7. Recent News (November-December 2025)
Nov 1, 2025 - "Ternium S.A. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now" (Yahoo)
Oct 30, 2025 - "Ternium S.A. 2025 Q3 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation" (Seeking Alpha)
Oct 30, 2025 - "Will Usiminas Write-Down and Weaker Outlook Reshape Ternium's (TX) Investment Narrative?" (Yahoo)
Oct 29, 2025 - "Ternium S.A. (TX) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript" (Seeking Alpha)
Oct 28, 2025 - "Ternium Announces Third Quarter and First Nine Months of 2025 Results" (Yahoo)
Oct 15, 2025 - "Do Options Traders Know Something About Ternium Stock We Don't?" (Yahoo)
Oct 5, 2025 - "Ternium: One Of The Best Steel Options Even With Tariffs" (Seeking Alpha)
Key Theme: Q3 2025 earnings significantly missed estimates, with concerns about Usiminas write-down and weakening outlook.
8. Analyst Ratings
Current Consensus (December 2025 - Finnhub)
| Rating |
Count |
| Strong Buy |
4 |
| Buy |
9 |
| Hold |
6 |
| Sell |
1 |
| Strong Sell |
0 |
| Total Analysts |
20 |
Consensus Summary (yfinance)
| Rating |
Count |
| Strong Buy |
3 |
| Buy |
3 |
| Hold |
6 |
| Sell |
1 |
| Strong Sell |
0 |
| Total |
13 |
Consensus: Moderately Bullish (Buy-leaning)
9. Ownership Structure
| Category |
Percentage |
| Insiders |
~0% |
| Institutions |
16.68% |
| Float |
429.5M shares |
Top Institutional Holders (as of Sep 30, 2025)
| Institution |
% Held |
Shares |
Value |
| Lazard Asset Management |
2.90% |
5.81M |
$219M |
| Ninety One UK Ltd |
2.20% |
4.42M |
$166M |
| Donald Smith & Co. |
1.87% |
3.74M |
$141M |
| Schroder Investment Mgmt |
1.14% |
2.28M |
$86M |
| Ninety One North America |
0.93% |
1.86M |
$70M |
10. Graham-Style Fundamental Analysis Summary
Graham Criteria Checklist
| Criterion |
Requirement |
TX Value |
Pass/Fail |
| Adequate Size |
Revenue > $2B |
$17.65B |
PASS |
| Strong Financial Condition |
Current Ratio > 2.0 |
2.46 |
PASS |
| Earnings Stability |
Positive EPS for 10 years |
Mixed |
CAUTION |
| Dividend Record |
Uninterrupted dividends 20+ years |
Yes |
PASS |
| Earnings Growth |
33%+ growth over 10 years |
Declining |
FAIL |
| Moderate P/E Ratio |
P/E < 15 |
12.52 |
PASS |
| Moderate P/B Ratio |
P/B < 1.5 (or P/E x P/B < 22.5) |
0.61 |
PASS |
| P/E x P/B < 22.5 |
Graham composite test |
7.64 |
PASS |
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) Analysis
- Current Assets: $11.07 billion
- Total Liabilities: $7.17 billion
- NCAV: $3.90 billion
- NCAV Per Share: $19.87
- Current Price: $37.68
- Price/NCAV: 1.90x (not a net-net, but reasonable)
Intrinsic Value Estimates
Graham Number: $63.16 (Current price 40% below)
Book Value Approach:
- Book Value: $61.01
- Price/Book: 0.62x
- At P/B = 1.0: Fair Value = $61.01
Earnings Power Value (using normalized earnings):
- Normalized EPS (5-year avg proxy): ~$7.50
- At P/E of 10: Fair Value = $75.00
- At P/E of 12: Fair Value = $90.00
Dividend Discount Model (simplified):
- Current Dividend: $2.70
- Required Return: 12%
- Assumed Growth: 3%
- DDM Value: $2.70 / (0.12 - 0.03) = $30.00
11. Risk Factors
- Cyclical Industry: Steel is highly cyclical; current downturn in margins and earnings
- Earnings Volatility: Q3 2025 massive miss (-88%); unpredictable quarter-to-quarter
- Declining Margins: Gross margin compressed from 25% (5Y avg) to 14% (TTM)
- Negative FCF: Free cash flow turned negative due to heavy capex
- High Payout Ratio: Dividend payout >100% is unsustainable without earnings recovery
- Geographic Concentration: Latin America exposure with currency/political risks
- Usiminas Write-Down: Recent impairment charges affecting book value
12. Key Strengths
- Deep Value: Trading at 0.61x book value and 12.5x earnings
- Strong Balance Sheet: Low debt, high current ratio, excellent liquidity
- High Dividend Yield: 7%+ yield is attractive for income investors
- Analyst Support: Majority of analysts rate Buy or Strong Buy
- Recovery Potential: Forward P/E of 5.1x implies significant earnings improvement expected
- Market Position: Leading steel producer in Latin America
Files Saved
- Raw Finnhub Data:
/home/pengacau/pasar-malam/output/tx_finnhub_data.json
- Raw yfinance Data:
/home/pengacau/pasar-malam/output/tx_yfinance_data.json
- This Summary:
/home/pengacau/pasar-malam/output/tx_data_summary.md
Data sources: Finnhub API, yfinance library. Data collected December 3, 2025. Market data may be delayed.