ULTRA-AGGRESSIVE 2-WEEK STOCK SCREENING REPORT

Target: 5x SPY Outperformance | December 8-19, 2025

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Mission: Screen for ultra-aggressive stocks with potential for 5x SPY outperformance over a 2-week trading window (Dec 8-19, 2025).

Budget: €1,271.97 (~$1,335 USD)
SPY Baseline: 2-week target ~1.15% → 5x Target: ~5.75%
Portfolio Expected Return: +7.77% (135% of 5x SPY target ✓)

Risk Profile: EXTREME
Number of Candidates Screened: 41
Shortlist: 10 candidates
Final Portfolio: 5 positions

SCREENING METHODOLOGY

Phase 1: Qualitative Screening

Used Finnhub API and yfinance to screen 41 high-volatility candidates across:

• Quantum computing (IONQ, QBTS, RGTI)
• AI/Tech (PLTR, NVDA, SMCI)
• Biotech (CRSP, SAVA, IONS)
• High-beta fintech (SOFI, UPST, HOOD, COIN)
• Meme stocks (GME, AMC)
• EV volatility (RIVN, LCID)

Filters Applied:

• Beta > 1.5
• Annualized volatility > 50%
• Recent momentum (5D or 20D)
• Volume surges > 100%
• Short interest > 10%

Result: 19 candidates passed initial screening

Phase 2: Catalyst Research

Web search (December 2025 news) to identify near-term catalysts:

• Quantum Computing: JPMorgan $1.5T initiative, AWS/Azure partnerships
• PLTR: December 4 - Chain Reaction platform launch with NVIDIA
• RIVN: December 11 - Autonomy & AI Day event
• IONQ: Q3 revenue +222% YoY, world-record qubit fidelity
• CRSP: Multiple 2025 clinical data readouts, CASGEVY commercialization
• UPST: 30% short interest, AI lending recovery

Result: 10 candidates with strong catalysts identified

Phase 3: Quantitative Factor Analysis

Calculated 4 factor scores (1-5 scale) for each candidate:

1. Momentum Factor (30% weight)

   • RSI positioning (60-80 optimal)
   • 1-week and 1-month price momentum
   • Volume trends

2. Volatility Factor (25% weight)

   • Historical volatility (>100% = max score)
   • Beta (>2.5 = max score)
   • Recent daily volatility

3. Short Squeeze Probability (20% weight)

   • Short % of float (>20% = max score)
   • Days to cover (>5 = max score)
   • Recent momentum (squeeze catalyst)

4. Event Catalyst (25% weight)

   • Timing (within 2-week window = higher score)
   • Market impact potential
   • Concrete vs speculative

Overall Aggression Score = Weighted composite of 4 factors

TOP 7 CANDIDATES (Ranked by Aggression Score)

Notable Exclusions:

• BYND: Too extreme (443% vol), pennystock - excluded from portfolio
• PLTR: Good catalyst but lower volatility, ranked #8
• RGTI: Recent -18% pullback creates "catching falling knife" risk

FINAL PORTFOLIO RECOMMENDATION

Portfolio Allocation (€1,271.97 budget)

Total Invested: $1,249.08
Transaction Costs: $10.50 (5 trades × $2.10)
Cash Remaining: $75.99
Portfolio Utilization: 93.5%

Return Projections (2-Week Horizon)

DETAILED CANDIDATE PROFILES

1. QBTS - D-Wave Quantum ($27.00)

Aggression Score: 3.93/5.00 (Highest)

Factor Scores:

• Momentum: 4.0/5.0 (RSI 59, +19% 1W momentum)
• Volatility: 4.5/5.0 (127% annualized, 1.56 beta)
• Short Squeeze: 3.0/5.0 (12.5% short interest)
• Catalyst: 4.0/5.0 (Quantum sector momentum)

Catalysts:

• Quantum computing sector gaining mainstream attention (Dec 2025)
• JPMorgan Chase $1.5T Security & Resiliency Initiative (quantum as key sub-area)
• AWS Braket and Azure Quantum cloud partnerships
• +19% 1-week surge shows strong momentum

Metrics:

• Market Cap: $9.64B
• Beta: 1.564
• Short Interest: 12.50%, Days to Cover: 0.79
• 1-Week: +19.10% | 1-Month: -4.90%
• Expected 2W Return: +12.8% (Bull: +38%, Bear: -17.7%)

Rationale: Highest aggression score. Leading quantum pure-play with explosive recent momentum. 50% portfolio weighting in quantum sector (QBTS + IONQ) captures sector trend while maintaining diversification across strategies.

Risk: Overbought after +19% 1-week surge. Quantum sector highly correlated - QBTS/IONQ move together.

2. IONQ - IonQ Inc. ($52.69)

Aggression Score: 3.74/5.00 (3rd)

Factor Scores:

• Momentum: 3.0/5.0 (RSI 59, +6.9% 1W)
• Volatility: 4.3/5.0 (105% annualized, 2.62 beta)
• Short Squeeze: 3.2/5.0 (16.5% short interest, 1.94 DTC)
• Catalyst: 4.5/5.0 (Strong fundamental catalysts)

Catalysts:

• Q3 2025 revenue +222% YoY ($106-110M FY guidance raised)
• World-record two-qubit gate fidelity >99.99%
• AWS Braket and Microsoft Azure Quantum partnerships
• Largest quantum market cap ($18.67B) = institutional credibility

Metrics:

• Beta: 2.617 (highest in quantum trio)
• Short Interest: 16.52%, Days to Cover: 1.94
• 1-Week: +6.88% | 1-Month: -8.25%
• Expected 2W Return: +7.5% (Bull: +25.9%, Bear: -14.5%)

Rationale: Best quantum fundamental story with revenue growth and technical milestones. Higher beta than QBTS. Moderate short interest adds squeeze potential.

Risk: Down -8% 1-month suggests consolidation phase. Richest valuation (P/S 146).

3. RIVN - Rivian Automotive ($17.95)

Aggression Score: 3.64/5.00 (4th)

Factor Scores:

• Momentum: 3.5/5.0 (RSI 84 = overbought, +18% 1M)
• Volatility: 2.8/5.0 (69.5% annualized, 1.80 beta)
• Short Squeeze: 3.2/5.0 (14.9% short, 2.85 DTC)
• Catalyst: 5.0/5.0 (Dec 11 AI Day - perfect timing!)

Catalysts:

• December 11, 2025: Autonomy & AI Day (key near-term event)
• Q3 2025: First profitable gross margin (+$24M)
• +32% 1-month momentum
• R2 launch timeline: manufacturing validation builds end of 2025
• Strong recent delivery beat (13,201 vs production 10,720)

Metrics:

• Market Cap: $22.01B
• Beta: 1.796
• Short Interest: 14.93%, Days to Cover: 2.85
• 1-Week: +6.47% | 1-Month: +17.94%
• Expected 2W Return: +5.6% (Bull: +18.3%, Bear: -9.6%)

Rationale: Only position with concrete event catalyst within 2-week window. AI Day on Dec 11 creates "buy the rumor, sell the news" opportunity. Strong 1-month momentum (+18%) shows institutional buying.

Risk: RSI 84 = overbought. May gap down after AI Day event. Consider selling into the event.

4. UPST - Upstart Holdings ($46.75)

Aggression Score: 3.46/5.00 (5th)

Factor Scores:

• Momentum: 4.0/5.0 (RSI 67, +24% 1M momentum)
• Volatility: 3.0/5.0 (69.7% annualized, 2.28 beta)
• Short Squeeze: 3.8/5.0 (30% short interest - highest!)
• Catalyst: 3.0/5.0 (AI recovery narrative)

Catalysts:

• Highest short interest: 29.53% of float (squeeze potential)
• Days to cover: 3.45 (moderate squeeze difficulty)
• Q3 loan originations +80% YoY ($2.9B)
• AI lending model recovering from Q3 "hallucination" issue
• Analyst 1-year target: $80 (71% upside)

Metrics:

• Market Cap: $4.55B
• Short Interest: 29.53%, Days to Cover: 3.45
• 1-Week: +3.98% | 1-Month: +23.92%
• Expected 2W Return: +4.8% (Bull: +16.9%, Bear: -9.7%)

Rationale: Best short squeeze setup (30% short). AI recovery narrative gaining traction. Strong 1-month momentum (+24%) suggests shorts under pressure.

Risk: AI model issues (Q3 "hallucination"). Stock down -40% YTD, -59% from 52-week high.

5. CRSP - CRISPR Therapeutics ($56.88)

Aggression Score: 3.42/5.00 (7th)

Factor Scores:

• Momentum: 3.0/5.0 (RSI 59, +6.4% 1W)
• Volatility: 2.8/5.0 (65.2% annualized, 1.73 beta)
• Short Squeeze: 4.7/5.0 (27% short interest, 9.48 DTC - epic squeeze setup!)
• Catalyst: 3.5/5.0 (2025 clinical catalysts, not Dec-specific)

Catalysts:

• Highest short interest: 27.31% + Days to cover: 9.48 (hardest to cover!)
• CASGEVY commercialization: 50+ treatment centers activated
• Multiple 2025 clinical data readouts (CTX310, CTX320, CTX112)
• FDA RMAT designation for CTX112
• 2025 = "catalyst-rich year" per company

Metrics:

• Market Cap: $5.42B
• Short Interest: 27.31%, Days to Cover: 9.48
• 1-Week: +6.38% | 1-Month: +0.48%
• Expected 2W Return: +5.4% (Bull: +17.4%, Bear: -9.0%)

Rationale: Best short squeeze technical setup (27% short × 9.48 DTC = explosive potential). Biotech adds portfolio diversification. Clinical catalysts throughout 2025 provide fundamental support.

Risk: No specific December catalyst. Biotech binary event risk. Flat 1-month performance shows no momentum yet.

RISK MANAGEMENT & EXECUTION PLAN

Critical Risks

1. EXTREME VOLATILITY: Average portfolio volatility >80% annualized

   • QBTS: 127% vol | IONQ: 105% vol | RIVN: 70% vol
   • Daily price swings of 5-10% are normal for these stocks
   • Expected 2-week return range: -13% to +25%

2. CONCENTRATION RISK: 50% in quantum sector (QBTS + IONQ)

   • These stocks are highly correlated (move together)
   • Quantum sector sentiment shift would impact 50% of portfolio
   • Mitigation: Diversify remaining 50% across EV, fintech, biotech

3. SMALL PORTFOLIO SIZE: €1,272 with 5 positions

   • Each position ~15-25% of portfolio = high individual risk
   • €2 transaction costs = 0.8% of total portfolio
   • No room for averaging down or rebalancing

4. 2-WEEK HORIZON: Extremely short timeframe

   • High probability of noise/randomness dominating signal
   • Market gaps, overnight moves can make/break strategy
   • Christmas holiday volume (Dec 20+) approaching = potential volatility

5. BEAR CASE SCENARIO: -12.9% portfolio loss in 2 weeks

   • Quantum sector reversal: QBTS/IONQ down -15% = -7.5% portfolio hit
   • RIVN AI Day disappointment: -10% = -2% portfolio hit
   • Total bear case: -$161 loss

Stop Loss Strategy

Hard stops at -15% per position:

• QBTS: Stop at $22.95 (-15%) = -$49 max loss
• IONQ: Stop at $44.79 (-15%) = -$47 max loss
• RIVN: Stop at $15.26 (-15%) = -$38 max loss
• UPST: Stop at $39.74 (-15%) = -$28 max loss
• CRSP: Stop at $48.35 (-15%) = -$26 max loss

Total max loss with stops: -$188 (-15% portfolio) vs -$161 bear case (-12.9%)

Take Profit Strategy

Aggressive profit-taking at +20% per position:

• Lock in gains to derisk portfolio
• Rebalance into cash or remaining positions
• Consider trailing stops after +20% reached

Event-driven profit-taking:

• RIVN: Sell 50-100% into Dec 11 AI Day ("buy rumor, sell news")
• QBTS/IONQ: Monitor quantum sector sentiment daily
• UPST/CRSP: Watch for short squeeze signals (volume spikes, rapid moves)

Daily Monitoring Checklist

Every trading day (Dec 8-19):

1. Check quantum sector news (QBTS/IONQ correlation)
2. Monitor short interest changes (UPST/CRSP squeeze potential)
3. RIVN: Track AI Day news/leaks (Dec 11 approaching)
4. Volume analysis: Flag unusual activity
5. Stop loss violations: Execute immediately, no second-guessing

5-Day Execution Plan

Day 1 (Dec 8 - Monday):

• Enter 50% of allocations for QBTS, IONQ, RIVN (test waters)
• Monitor overnight moves and market open gaps
• Set stop loss alerts at -15%

Day 2 (Dec 9 - Tuesday):

• If no major gaps/reversals, enter remaining 50% of QBTS/IONQ/RIVN
• Add UPST position (full allocation)
• Monitor quantum sector correlation

Day 3 (Dec 10 - Wednesday):

• Add CRSP position (full allocation)
• Portfolio fully deployed
• Set take-profit alerts at +20%

Day 4 (Dec 11 - Thursday - RIVN AI DAY):

• KEY EVENT: RIVN Autonomy & AI Day
• Consider selling 50-100% of RIVN position into the event
• Monitor for "sell the news" behavior
• Potential rebalancing opportunity

Week 2 (Dec 12-19):

• Daily monitoring of stops and targets
• Be ready to exit winners at +20%
• Dec 19: Final day - exit all positions by close (avoid holding into Christmas week)

STATISTICAL OUTLIERS & RED FLAGS

Flagged as TOO EXTREME (Excluded from Portfolio)

BYND - Beyond Meat ($1.22):

• Aggression Score: 3.75/5.00 (2nd highest!)
• Expected 2W Return: +29.9% (Bull: +106.7%, Bear: -61.4%)
• WHY EXCLUDED:
  • 443% annualized volatility (3x higher than portfolio average)
  • Pennystock ($1.22) with wide bid-ask spreads
  • No concrete catalysts (speculative bounce only)
  • +24% 1-week surge likely exhausted
  • Risk/reward too asymmetric (-61% bear vs +107% bull)
  • Better risk-adjusted plays available (QBTS, IONQ)

Potential Overbought Signals

QBTS: +19% 1-week surge

• RSI 59 (not extreme, but watch)
• Consider scaling entry (50% Day 1, 50% Day 2)
• If gaps up >5% on Dec 8, skip or reduce allocation

RIVN: RSI 84 = overbought

• Strong momentum but stretched
• Sell-the-news risk on Dec 11 AI Day
• Plan to exit 50-100% into the event

CVNA: +38% 1-month, RSI 81

• Excluded from final portfolio (lower aggression score)
• Momentum trade getting crowded

Falling Knife Risk

RGTI - Rigetti Computing:

• -18% 1-month pullback (quantum sector weakness)
• Aggression Score: 3.46/5.00 (tied for 6th)
• WHY EXCLUDED:
  • Quantum exposure already at 50% (QBTS + IONQ)
  • Recent pullback suggests sector rotation or profit-taking
  • Better to own the leaders (QBTS, IONQ) than the laggard
  • Risk of "catching falling knife" if quantum selloff continues

PORTFOLIO DIVERSIFICATION ANALYSIS

Strategy Breakdown

• Quantum/Momentum: 50% (QBTS, IONQ)
• Event Catalyst: 19% (RIVN)
• Short Squeeze: 27% (UPST, CRSP)

Sector Breakdown

• Technology: 69% (QBTS, IONQ, UPST)
• Automotive/EV: 19% (RIVN)
• Biotech: 13% (CRSP)

Correlation Risk

HIGH CORRELATION:

• QBTS ↔ IONQ: ~0.8+ (quantum sector moves together)
• Impact: 50% of portfolio highly correlated

LOW CORRELATION:

• RIVN ↔ Quantum: ~0.3 (EV vs tech)
• CRSP ↔ Quantum: ~0.2 (biotech vs tech)
• UPST ↔ Quantum: ~0.4 (fintech vs tech)

Portfolio Effective Diversification: ~3.2 independent positions (vs 5 nominal)

• This is acceptable for ultra-aggressive 2-week strategy
• Quantum concentration is intentional sector bet

COMPARISON TO SPY TARGET

SPY Baseline (December 6, 2025)

• Current Price: ~$604
• 1-Month Return: +2.29%
• Annualized Volatility: 13.7%
• 2-Week Expected Return: ~1.15%

5x SPY Target

• Target Return: 1.15% × 5 = 5.75%
• Target P/L: €1,272 × 5.75% = €73.14

Portfolio Performance vs Target

Conclusion: Portfolio exceeds 5x SPY target by 35% in expected case.

Risk-Adjusted Comparison

SPY Sharpe Ratio (annualized): ~0.8

• Return: ~12% annual
• Volatility: 13.7%
• Sharpe: 12% / 13.7% ≈ 0.88

Portfolio Sharpe Ratio (2-week, annualized equivalent):

• Expected return: 7.77% × 26 periods = 202% annual (!)
• Average volatility: ~85% annual
• Sharpe: 202% / 85% ≈ 2.38

Interpretation: Portfolio has significantly higher risk-adjusted returns than SPY in expected case, but this comes with extreme downside risk (-12.9% vs SPY's typical -2% 2-week drawdown).

KEY TAKEAWAYS & DECISION FRAMEWORK

Why This Portfolio?

1. Exceeds 5x SPY Target: 7.77% expected vs 5.75% target
2. Balanced Aggression: High volatility + catalysts + short squeeze potential
3. Diversification: 3 strategies (momentum, event, squeeze) × 3 sectors
4. Catalyst Timing: RIVN AI Day (Dec 11) is perfectly timed
5. Short Squeeze Potential: UPST (30%) and CRSP (27%) offer asymmetric upside
6. Quantum Momentum: 50% allocation captures hottest sector (Dec 2025)

What Could Go Right? (Bull Case: +25%)

1. Quantum Rally Continues: QBTS/IONQ +30-40% on sector momentum
2. RIVN AI Day Beats: Stock gaps up 15-20% on autonomous driving reveal
3. Short Squeeze Triggered: UPST or CRSP squeezes on volume spike
4. Portfolio Momentum: All 5 positions green, compounding gains
5. Market Tailwind: Santa rally into Christmas week

What Could Go Wrong? (Bear Case: -13%)

1. Quantum Reversal: Sector profit-taking, QBTS/IONQ down -20%
2. RIVN Disappointment: AI Day underwhelms, stock sells off -15%
3. Market Correction: Broad tech selloff impacts all positions
4. No Catalyst Delivery: Events fizzle, momentum fades
5. Stop Loss Cascade: One position triggers, others follow

When to Exit?

WINNING POSITIONS (+20%):

• Take 50-75% profits
• Trail stops on remainder
• Consider rebalancing or de-risking

LOSING POSITIONS (-15%):

• Execute stop loss immediately
• No averaging down
• Accept the loss and protect capital

END OF 2-WEEK WINDOW (Dec 19):

• Exit ALL positions by close
• Don't hold into Christmas week (low liquidity)
• Lock in gains or losses, reset for next strategy

DATA SOURCES & REFERENCES

Market Data

• yfinance: Historical prices, volatility, beta, RSI calculations
• Finnhub API: Short interest, days to cover, company profiles
• Data as of: December 6, 2025

Catalyst Research

• Web search (December 2025 news):
  • Quantum stocks Dec 2025
  • Palantir NVIDIA partnership
  • Rivian AI Day
  • UPST short squeeze
  • CRSP 2025 catalysts

Quantitative Methodology

• Factor scoring based on Elements of Quantitative Investing principles
• Expected return projections: Monte Carlo-style scenario weighting
• Risk metrics: Historical volatility, beta, drawdown estimates
• Portfolio construction: Mean-variance optimization adapted for 2-week horizon

FILES GENERATED

1. Screening Results:

   • /home/pengacau/pasar-malam/output/ultra_aggressive_shortlist_dec2025.json

2. Quantitative Analysis:

   • /home/pengacau/pasar-malam/output/quantitative_analysis_dec6_2025.json

3. Portfolio Recommendation:

   • /home/pengacau/pasar-malam/output/portfolio_recommendation_dec6_2025.json

4. This Report:

   • /home/pengacau/pasar-malam/output/FINAL_SCREENING_REPORT_DEC6_2025.md

DISCLAIMER

This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It represents an ULTRA-AGGRESSIVE trading strategy with extreme risk characteristics:

• Potential losses exceed -15% in 2-week period
• High volatility (80%+ annualized) means daily swings of 5-10%
• Short timeframe (2 weeks) means randomness dominates
• Small portfolio (€1,272) means high per-position risk
• No guarantee of achieving 5x SPY target

This is NOT investment advice. The author is not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. You could lose all of your invested capital.

Only invest capital you can afford to lose entirely.

Report Generated: December 6, 2025
Analysis by: Ultra-Aggressive Stock Screening Engine (Claude Code + Quantitative Analysis)
Next Review: Daily monitoring Dec 8-19, 2025